March Madness is the greatest betting spectacle in American sports precisely because chalk doesn’t always cash. Every year, double-digit seeds shatter brackets and send sportsbooks scrambling. In 2026, the first round features several mid-major programs with legitimate cases to pull off an upset against their Power-conference opponents. Jay Bilas picked USF to upset Louisville, but given Mikel Brown’s injury, that doesn’t feel as big of an upset as some of our predictions.
Here are four of the best upset picks for Round 1 of March Madness.
No. 13 Troy Trojans vs. No. 4 Nebraska
- 🗓️ Date: Thursday, March 19
- 🕐 Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- 📺 TV Channel: truTV
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Troy (No. 13) | +12 (-110) | +800 | Over 137.5 (-110) |
| Nebraska (No. 4) | -12 (-110) | -1200 | Under 137.5 (-110) |
Head coach Scott Cross has built Troy into one of the most reliable mid-major programs in the country. They’ve won back-to-back Sun Belt titles, had five straight 20-win seasons, and posted a 3-1 record in Quad 1 and 2 games this year. Thomas Dowd averages a double-double, Victor Valdes jumped from 4 to nearly 15 points per game, and Cooper Campbell runs the offense at over 12 points and 4 assists.
Nebraska holds opponents to 40.4% shooting and is elite at defending the three. That’s a real obstacle. But Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game, and the Huskers have a long history of wilting under postseason pressure. Troy went toe-to-toe with San Diego State and USC (double OT) this season. They won’t be intimidated by the Cornhuskers.
The Bet: Troy ML (+800)
No. 12 High Point Panthers vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
- 🗓️ Date: Thursday, March 19
- 🕐 Time: 1:50 p.m. ET
- 📺 TV Channel: TBS
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| High Point (No. 12) | +9.5 (-110) | +375 | Over 164.5 (-110) |
| Wisconsin (No. 5) | -9.5 (-110) | -500 | Under 164.5 (-110) |
The most legitimate upset threat in the bracket. ESPN’s BPI gives High Point a 24% outright win probability, the highest of any double-digit seed in the field.
The Panthers score 90 points per game (4th nationally) and enter on a 14-game winning streak. Wisconsin’s defense has struggled to defend the three-ball and High Point shoots 36.8% from deep with multiple dangerous perimeter options.
The one real concern: Wisconsin turns the ball over at the third-lowest rate in the country, which neutralizes High Point’s biggest offensive catalyst (they score 21 points per game off turnovers). But the line has already moved from -12.5 to -9.5 as sharp money came in on the Panthers, and that movement tells you everything.
The Bet: High Point ML (+375)
No. 12 Akron Zips vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
- 🗓️ Date: Thursday, March 20
- 🕐 Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- 📺 TV Channel: truTV
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Akron (No. 12) | +7.5 (-110) | +270 | Over 155.5 (-110) |
| Texas Tech (No. 5) | -7.5 (-110) | -340 | Under 155.5 (-110) |
The case for Akron is strong: three straight MAC Tournament titles, a 19–1 record in their last 20 games. and the highest KenPom ranking (No. 64) of any team from a traditional one-bid conference.
Akron is the real deal. They shoot 50.3% from the field and 37.9% from three, with four rotation players shooting above 37% from deep. Tavari Johnson runs the show at 20.3 points and 5.0 assists.
Texas Tech is the more compelling story, for all the wrong reasons. JT Toppin, an All-American candidate who averaged 21.8 ppg and 10.8 rpg, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Christian Anderson’s health entering the tournament is uncertain. The Red Raiders have lost three straight and this line opened at -9.5 and has already moved to -7.5 with potential to move further.
Follow the smart money.
The Bet: Akron ML (+270)
No. 13 Hofstra Pride vs. No. 4 Alabama
- 🗓️ Date: Thursday, March 20
- 🕐 Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
- 📺 TV Channel: truTV
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Hofstra (No. 13) | +12 (-110) | +550 | Over 159.5 (-110) |
| Alabama (No. 4) | -12 (-110) | -800 | Under 159.5 (-110) |
Alabama leads the nation at 91.7 points per game and has made four straight Sweet 16s. This is the biggest long shot on the list, but there’s a real case for Hofstra.
Alabama ranks 169th in opponent three-point percentage, and Hofstra shoots 36.8% from deep. Freshman Preston Edmead made 90 threes this season at 38.3% and has hit multiple threes in five of his last six games. He will get open looks all night.
Defensively, Hofstra’s frontcourt duo of Silas Sunday and Victory Onuetu ranks top 5 nationally in two-point defense, clogging the lanes Alabama relies on when transition isn’t flowing. The Pride went 7–2 ATS as underdogs this season and beat Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and UCF.
Speedy Claxton has this team believing.
The Bet: Hofstra ML (+550)
