Thursday’s March Madness betting trends are leaning heavily toward favorites, but once you separate tickets from money, the board becomes easier to read. The volume is stacked on the usual names, while a smaller group of plays is attracting the bulk of the handle.
Early insight from DraftKings and other top sportsbooks gives us perspective on what is being backed on day one of the NCAA tournament.
Lopsided Thursday CBB Action @DKSportsbook⚠️
83%💰 on USF ML
89%🎟️ on Duke ML
81%🎟️ on Duke -27.5
82%🎟️ on Vandy ML
88%🎟️ on Mich St ML
88%🎟️ on Arkansas ML
85%🎟️ on VCU/UNC u151.5
87%🎟️ on Michigan ML
80%🎟️ on Illinois ML
87%🎟️ on Gonzaga ML
89%💰 on Kennesaw St ML
89%🎟️ on…— DK Insights (@DKInsights_) March 19, 2026
March Madness Betting Trends Thursday Tickets Breakdown
- Duke ML — 89% of tickets
- Duke -27.5 — 81% of tickets
- Houston ML — 89% of tickets
- Houston -23.5 — 87% of tickets
- Michigan State ML — 88% of tickets
- Arkansas ML — 88% of tickets
- Michigan ML — 87% of tickets
- Gonzaga ML — 87% of tickets
- VCU vs UNC Under 151.5 — 85% of tickets
- Vanderbilt ML — 82% of tickets
- Illinois ML — 80% of tickets
March Madness Betting Trends Thursday Money Breakdown
- Kennesaw State ML — 89% of money
- Houston -23.5 — 88% of money
- USF ML — 83% of money
- Idaho ML — 80% of money
Why March Madness Bettors Keep Flooding Favorites On Thursday
This part is not new. First-round Thursday always brings in a wave of casual action, and casual action usually prefers the cleaner story. Better seed, better brand, better record, move on. That does not mean the favorite is wrong. It means favorites are easier to click and easier to live with for bettors who would rather back Duke than spend the afternoon explaining why a No. 13 seed was the smart side all along.
There is also the bracket effect. March Madness is not treated like a normal betting day because plenty of people already spent the week circling teams they expect to advance. By Thursday morning, a lot of that thinking spills into the sportsbook.
You see it in the ticket list here. Duke, Houston, Michigan State, Arkansas, Michigan and Gonzaga are all sitting at 87% of tickets or higher. That is not random spread betting. That is the board getting pulled toward familiar names.
Historic March Madness Point Spreads Help Explain The Chalky Feel
This year’s first round is also helping the favorites out. The card is full of huge numbers. That matters because a slate with a lot of 20-point ranges naturally creates a board where the strongest teams dominate the conversation. If the market is already telling bettors there is a major gap in class, most of the public is not going to fight it. They are going to lay the moneyline, add a spread, and move to the next game.
That is what makes the Houston entry stand out. The Cougars are drawing 89% of tickets on the moneyline, then showing up again with 87% of tickets and 88% of money at -23.5. Duke has the same profile on a smaller scale, with 89% of tickets on the moneyline and 81% on -27.5. Those are the kind of positions that show how a strong seed turns into a betting magnet on Thursday.
March Madness Money Splits Tell A Different Story Than Ticket Counts
The money side is much thinner than the ticket side, and that is the part worth noticing. There are only four money entries in the screenshot: Kennesaw State moneyline at 89%, Houston -23.5 at 88%, USF moneyline at 83%, and Idaho moneyline at 80%.
That does not automatically mean those are the best plays. It does mean the board looks different when you stop counting bet slips and start looking at handle. Tickets are spread across the obvious favorites. Money is more selective. Houston is the only team that shows up strongly in both places, while Kennesaw State moneyline is the single biggest money figure in the image. That is the one number on the board that breaks the neat favorite-brand pattern.
VCU Vs UNC Total Is The Only Bet That Breaks The Favorite Pattern
Everything here is a side except one total. VCU vs UNC under 151.5 is sitting at 85% of tickets, which makes it the only listed market that is not tied to simply picking who wins. That alone gives it a different feel from the rest of the board.
It also says something about how Thursday betting works. When the slate gets flooded with favorite moneylines, any total that reaches this kind of ticket share stands out immediately. It is one of the few places where bettors are backing a script instead of a logo.
Thursday March Madness Betting Trends Look Familiar Even If The Numbers Are Extreme
The shape of this board is familiar. The scale is what jumps out. Favorites are dominating the ticket count, large spreads are getting real support, and the money list is far shorter than the ticket list. That is a very Thursday-in-March setup.
So yes, the public does this every year in the broad sense. Bettors lean toward favorites, especially in standalone windows, especially when the tournament gives them elite seeds and giant point spreads to work with. What changes from year to year is how extreme the menu looks. This year, with so many huge lines on the board, the favorite-heavy feel is even easier to understand.
