Sports Illustrated senior editor Iain MacMillan has identified Turkey +260 as the standout value play in Thursday’s Turkey vs USA World Cup group closer at Los Angeles Stadium.
Sports Illustrated Turkey vs USA Best Bets Summary
- Turkey Moneyline (+260): Second in tournament xG differential at +2.31; the USMNT posted just +0.88 despite two wins over weaker opposition.
- Arda Guler Anytime Goal (+295): Guler leads Turkey’s attack with 11 shots and is generating chances consistently despite the scoreless run.
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Sports Illustrated Turkey vs USA Prediction: Turkey Win (+260)
MacMillan framed this as the defining sell-high, buy-low moment of the World Cup 2026 group stage. Turkey enters with a 0-0-2 record after losses to Australia and Paraguay, but the underlying numbers tell a completely different story.
“Don’t be fooled by Turkey’s record. It ranks second in the tournament in expected goal differential at +2.31. They’ve created opportunities, but have struggled to actually score,” MacMillan wrote at Sports Illustrated.
The USMNT case looks shakier under scrutiny. A +0.88 expected goal differential across two wins over Paraguay and Australia suggests the scorelines flattered the performance level considerably.
“Eventually, water is going to find its level,” MacMillan wrote.
Turkey are eliminated, but pride and a 2-1 win over the USA in a 2025 friendly give Vincenzo Montella’s side genuine motivation to finish strong..
Sports Illustrated Turkey vs USA Prediction: Arda Guler Anytime Scorer (+295)
Arda Guler has been one of the tournament’s busiest attackers by volume, registering 11 shots across two group stage appearances.
That places the Real Madrid midfielder fifth in total shots at the entire World Cup 2026 – the conversion rate simply has not matched the volume yet.
“He’s going to get his chances, so he presents some value to score at +295,” MacMillan wrote at Sports Illustrated.
Turkey vs USA Odds
- USA Moneyline: -110
- Turkey Moneyline: +260
- Draw: +310
- Over 2.5 Goals: +111
- Under 2.5 Goals: -135
- Both Teams to Score (Yes): -108
- Both Teams to Score (No): -120
How to Watch Turkey vs USA: World Cup June 25
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Los Angeles Stadium
- TV: Fox / Tele
