Watching centre-backs nervously pick up the ball and steady themselves before taking a crucial World Cup penalty has always been a heart-in-mouth moment.
Now, however, the outcome is sadly a little too predictable.
This summer, mercurial forwards and wingers brimming with confidence have made no mistake from 12 yards, sending goalkeepers the wrong way with a devilish glance or just beating them with sheer power.
Usually, defenders are the ones standing on the halfway line, dreading that long walk to the spot. A glance at the data of every spot-kick taken since Russia 2018 has revealed that when they are called upon, they probably shouldn’t be there.
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The Damning Number: 44%
It has been revealed that since 2018, only eight of the 18 centre-backs handed a spot-kick in a World Cup shootout have scored. That has generated a measly 44 per cent conversion rate, a sorry tale for players usually credited for their heroics at the other end.
For context, that’s a brutal number. Even accounting for the pressure-cooker nature of shootouts across every position, a coin-flip-or-worse success rate from central defenders stands out as one of the more quietly damning stats in recent soccer history.
Why It Keeps Happening
There’s an obvious explanation: centre-backs don’t take penalties for a living.
Club sides very rarely hand the ball to their central defenders in regular in-game situations, which means when a shootout drags deep enough – or a manager runs out of established takers – it’s often a defender who gets pushed forward.
That’s a very different proposition to a striker who’s drilled the same run-up hundreds of times in training and matches alike. Confidence and repetition matter enormously in shootouts, and centre-backs are, by definition, the position with the least of both.
What It Means For Bettors
Simply, it’s a bad idea to tip centre-backs to get the job done from the spot. At this World Cup alone, no less than six different centre-backs have squandered their big chance from 12 yards.
The unlikely men are Australia’s Harry Souttar and Lucas Herrington, Paraguay’s Fabian Balbuena, Germany’s Jonathan Tah, Colombia’s Davinson Sanchez and, most recently, Switzerland’s Manuel Akanji.
