England and Argentina will renew their fierce rivalry on Wednesday with a spot in the World Cup final up for grabs.
Lionel Messi will go toe-to-toe with the Three Lions for the first time in his career in Atlanta in the second semi-final, while Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham will also hope to make the difference.
Given the stakes, we pulled together how the biggest names in sports media are calling this one, from Covers and CBS Sports to Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and FOX Sports, along with the latest odds and reasoning behind each pick.
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Covers England vs Argentina Predictions: Backs Three Lions
Covers has England winning, with the Three Lions currently priced at -125 to reach the final. The site has pointed to the resilience of Thomas Tuchel’s side, as well as their “more well-rounded” team in comparison to their opponents.
On the other side, they have argued that Argentina are perhaps too reliant on the genius of Lionel Messi, despite Julian Alvarez’s strong form. In comparison, England have been inspired by both Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, with others also chipping in. Covers have applauded the heroics of Bellingham in particular, as well as his tally of six goals.
- Covers Pick: England to win
- Odds: England -125 to advance
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CBS Sports Predictions: Plenty of Goals
The soccer desk at CBS Sports appears split down the middle.
Resident betting expert Jon Eimer has been vocal about his belief in Argentina’s tournament pedigree, arguing that Lionel Scaloni’s squad simply knows how to survive and advance.
On the other side of the studio, Martin Green is backing England, though he is protecting himself by advising a “Draw No Bet” wager on the Three Lions to account for the very real possibility of extra time and penalties.
Despite their disagreement on the outright winner, the CBS SportsLine experts have found common ground on a highly lucrative multi-leg parlay. They are predicting a chaotic, back-and-forth affair in Atlanta.
They argue that neither defense has looked entirely flawless during the knockout stages, which makes a combined bet on both teams to score and the match going over 2.5 total goals highly appealing. Eimer and Green agree that if England’s dynamic young attack presses high, it will force Argentina into a shootout style of play that benefits neutral viewers.
- CBS Sports Pick: England to advance, Over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: England +165, Argentina +200
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Sports Illustrated Predictions: Three Lions To Lose
Over at Sports Illustrated, betting analyst Iain MacMillan believes England should prepare themselves for another crushing disappointment.
MacMillan’s analysis leans heavily into the underlying advanced metrics, pointing out a stark contrast in the expected goals (xG) data for both teams throughout the tournament.
According to his findings, Argentina boasts a far healthier expected goal differential (+0.9 xG per 90 minutes) compared to England’s (+0.68 xG), suggesting that the South American giants are creating higher-quality chances.
MacMillan is highly skeptical of England’s defensive shape under pressure. While England’s midfield has controlled possession, their backline has surrendered an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.20 per 90, a vulnerability that Messi and Julian Alvarez are uniquely suited to exploit.
MacMillan predicts that Argentina’s clinical finishing and superior big-match experience will ultimately break English hearts in regular time, recommending a straight play on Argentina to advance alongside the over on total goals.
- Sports Illustrated Analysis: Argentina’s statistics make them the favourites
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USA Today: Tuchel The Difference In England vs Argentina
USA Today’s soccer roundtable focuses on the vastly different journeys these two teams took to reach Atlanta.
While Argentina enjoyed a relatively straightforward run through the knockout rounds, England had to survive a gauntlet.
The Three Lions battled through a hostile atmosphere to defeat Mexico in Mexico City, followed by a physically gruelling, high-intensity quarter-final against a stubborn Norway side. USA Today’s panel argues that this battle-tested journey has forged mental resilience in the squad.
The roundtable consensus lands on a tight 2-1 victory for England in normal time. The analysts believe that the hiring of Thomas Tuchel was done specifically for a match like this. Tuchel’s history of tactical masterclasses in elite knockout tournaments may give England a crucial in-game coaching edge over Scaloni, despite his own lofty reputation.
By utilizing a highly disciplined mid-block, USA Today expects England to starve Messi of service in the final third.
- USA Today Pick: England to win, courtesy of Thomas Tuchel’s know-how
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FOX Sports Predictions: England To Advance
The FOX Sports analysis team has been closely tracking Argentina’s reliance on late-game heroics. The studio crew notes that while La Albiceleste have played breathtaking football in patches, they have also shown a worrying tendency to lose concentration, relying on extra-time escapes and spectacular goalkeeping to bail them out of trouble against lesser opponents.
Their analysts argue that those structural defensive flaws will finally catch up to them on Wednesday. Indeed, they project England’s midfield trio to completely dominate the center of the pitch, effectively cutting off the supply lines to Argentina’s front three.
They also expect Tuchel to deploy a physical, suffocating press that will force Argentina into multiple turnovers. In what they describe as a changing of the guard, the broadcast team is predicting that England will control the tempo from the opening whistle and comfortably advance to their first World Cup final on foreign soil – and their first since 1966.
- FOX Sports Pick: England to beat Argentina and reach the final
- Odds: England -122 to advance
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England vs Argentina Kick-off Details
England and Argentina kick off Wednesday, July 15, at 3:00 pm ET from Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta.
The winner will take on Spain in the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium.
To bet on England vs Argentina in any US state, follow Sportscasting’s guide.
