Bo Nix sits at ADP 115 despite projecting for 360.7 fantasy points, and that gap is the loudest signal in 2026 quarterback drafts. FFToday’s Steve Schwarz built a value model comparing raw ADP against season-long projections, and Nix leads a group of quarterbacks being drafted well below their expected output. That model also flags the reverse problem, quarterbacks getting drafted early on name value alone, and the gap between the two groups should shape how fantasy managers attack the position this August.
The Confirmed Value Plays At Quarterback
Bo Nix projects for 360.7 points at ADP 115, landing within eight points of Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow despite going five or six rounds later. Denver added Jaylen Waddle to pair with 1,000-yard receiver Courtland Sutton, and Schwarz projects Nix to clear 4,000 passing yards while adding rushing production.
Jared Goff checks in at ADP 131 with a 356.0-point projection, outscoring Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert in the model while landing within three points of Dak Prescott. Goff has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns in four straight seasons throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
Tyler Shough at ADP 142 projects for the exact same point total as Herbert, a 33-pick gap that Schwarz calls simply too wide to ignore. Kyler Murray rounds out the group at ADP 148, projected near Matthew Stafford’s output while going four full rounds later with Justin Jefferson now catching his passes.
Why The Ankle Injury Still Matters For Nix
Schwarz’s own writeup flags an ankle issue worth watching for Nix, even while projecting him to surpass 4,000 passing yards. That caution is worth remembering before locking in Nix as an automatic mid-round target, since the primary projection data does not itself confirm full health clearance. Fantasy managers weighing 2026 draft value against injury risk should treat Nix’s ankle as a real variable, not a footnote.
The Quarterbacks Getting Drafted Too Early
Lamar Jackson comes off the board at ADP 43, with Schwarz arguing against drafting him as the second quarterback in the fifth round despite projecting him to finish third at the position behind names going one to three rounds later. Derrick Henry’s expanded workload has eaten into Jackson’s red zone touchdowns, and his receiving corps still lacks a true second option beyond Zay Flowers. That backdrop connects directly to questions about Baltimore’s offensive approach under center in 2026.
Joe Burrow at ADP 55.5 carries obvious upside with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but Schwarz notes managers can get Nix six rounds later or Prescott three rounds later for a nearly identical total. Caleb Williams at ADP 92 and Jaxson Dart at ADP 80 round out the overpriced group, with Schwarz projecting 14 quarterbacks to outscore Dart this season alone.
How The Numbers Stack Up
| Quarterback | FFT Projection | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 360.7 | 115.0 |
| Jared Goff | 356.0 | 131.0 |
| Tyler Shough | 352.3 | 142.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 371.8 | 43.0 |
| Joe Burrow | 362.6 | 55.5 |
| Caleb Williams | 354.8 | 92.0 |
Herbert’s projection is equal to Shough’s despite a much higher ADP, a gap worth weighing against outside MVP-caliber projections for Herbert this season. External ADP trackers largely agree on the direction here too, with CBS Sports listing Nix at 130.3 and Goff at 114.5 as clear value plays as of mid-August, according to Fantasy Football QB ADP Review 1.0 from CBS Sports.
What To Watch Before Draft Day
Sports Illustrated analyst Michael Fabiano separately identified Nix, Goff and Murray as top-15 quarterback bargains in his own model, according to his 2026 Fantasy Football ADP Bargains breakdown. Two independent models landing on the same names is not a coincidence, it is a signal that Nix’s mid-round price is unlikely to hold once drafts heat up in late August. Managers should track any preseason usage reports on Nix’s ankle closely before their draft slot arrives.
