2025 Baltimore Orioles Preview: World Series Contenders or Cautionary Tale?

For the first time in over 50 years, the Baltimore Orioles are poised to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season. That alone is historic, but simply getting there is no longer the standard. This team, with its young core and dynamic offense, isn’t built just to participate—it’s built to win in October.

The path forward, however, is far from guaranteed. The lineup remains one of the best in baseball, but questions about pitching depth and a rotation without Corbin Burnes loom large. The Orioles have the talent, the front office savvy, and the trade assets to make a deep run, but whether they have the right pieces in place right now is a different story.

Offense: A Lineup with Few Weak Spots

On paper, the Orioles’ offense looks primed to be among the best in baseball once again. The club finished in the top five in runs scored last year, and while there are some changes, the core remains intact.

The biggest loss is Anthony Santander, who led the team with 44 home runs but left for the Toronto Blue Jays in free agency. The Orioles replaced him with Tyler O’Neill, who hit 31 homers for Boston. It’s not a perfect swap, but O’Neill should bring plenty of power.

Jackson Holliday, one of the game’s most highly touted prospects, struggled mightily in his 208 plate appearances last season (.189/.255/.311, 63 wRC+), but at just 21 years old, the belief is he’ll take a major step forward.

Then there’s Gunnar Henderson, the heartbeat of the Orioles’ offense. The AL MVP runner-up hit 37 home runs, stole 21 bases, and posted an 8.0 fWAR, the highest by an Oriole since Cal Ripken Jr.’s 1991 campaign. He’s a legitimate superstar, and Baltimore will go as far as Henderson can take them.

Adley Rutschman took a step back at the plate last year, falling from a 127 wRC+ to 104, mainly due to a drop in walk rate. But there’s plenty of reason to expect a rebound, and a return to form from Rutschman would make this lineup even more dangerous.

"[Adley Rutschman is] playing at a very elite level on both sides of the ball."

The Orioles superstar checked in at #2 on the #Top10RightNow! pic.twitter.com/f0fEoiL6wj

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 10, 2025

The Orioles also bolstered their bench, signing Gary Sánchez and Ramon Laureano, two veterans who bring power and defensive stability. Meanwhile, Coby Mayo, a top-50 prospect, and Samuel Basallo, the No. 1 catching prospect in baseball, are waiting in the wings.

The offense should be elite. The question, as always, is pitching.

Pitching: Can the Rotation Hold Up?

If the Orioles fall short of their ultimate goal, the rotation will likely be the culprit.

Last year, Baltimore finished 27th in ERA (4.81), despite ranking 19th in FIP (4.04). Their 66.4% left-on-base percentage ranked 27th—a clear sign that the rotation lacked the ability to escape jams.

And now, Corbin Burnes is gone.

Burnes was the undisputed ace, logging 32 starts, 194.1 innings, and a 2.92 ERA. His 3.7 fWAR led the staff by a wide margin. His departure leaves Grayson Rodriguez as the team’s new No. 1, but after logging just 17 innings in the second half last season, his durability is a major concern.

Grayson Rodriguez looked good in his short start today:

1.2 IP 0 H 0 R 0 BB 2 K

He’s going to take the leap into ace territory in 2025📈
pic.twitter.com/KrNuVxPbAK

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 28, 2025

The Orioles tried to patch the hole by signing Charlie Morton (41 years old) and Tomoyuki Sugano (35 years old, NPB import). Morton has been remarkably durable, making at least 30 starts in every non-COVID season since 2017, but his effectiveness is declining. Sugano, meanwhile, posted a 1.67 ERA with a staggering 70.1% ground ball rate in Japan last year, but how that translates to MLB remains to be seen.

Beyond that, Zach Eflin was acquired from Tampa Bay and should provide some stability, but Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez are far from sure things. Kyle Bradish and top prospect Chayce McDermott could provide reinforcements later in the season, and Trevor Rogers may be available by May, but for now, this rotation feels precarious at best.

One thing to watch: Baltimore has plenty of trade assets. If they need a frontline starter at the deadline, names like Sandy Alcántara could be in play.

Bullpen: A Strength Once Again

While the rotation is a question mark, the bullpen remains a major strength.

Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery, and if he’s anywhere near his pre-injury self, he’s one of the game’s best closers. Andrew Kittredge, Yennier Cano, and Seranthony Domínguez provide a formidable bridge to the ninth inning.

The relief corps shouldn’t be an issue. The question is whether the starters can give them enough leads to protect.

Outlook: A Contender with One Big Question Mark

The Baltimore Orioles are a playoff team. That much seems certain.

But can they truly contend for a World Series?

That depends entirely on the pitching staff. If Rodriguez emerges as an ace, if Eflin provides consistency, if Sugano adjusts well, and if the team makes the right moves at the deadline, this club could be one of the most dangerous in the AL.

If not, Baltimore will find itself in the same place it was last season—good enough to get there, but not good enough to go the distance.

They’ve built something special. But now, it’s time to see if it’s enough.