2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Are The Thunder Ready To Take The Next Step Against The Nuggets?

Now that the dust has settled on the first round and only eight teams remain, we can focus on the second round. And we have a treat on our hands in the Western Conference Semifinals, as the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will face off against the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets.

The young Thunder are well-rested after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in four games. But now the real challenge comes as they have to play Denver, which won a ring just two years ago and is fresh off a fierce seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers.

But are the Thunder ready to dethrone Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets? Or will the old dogs remain at the top of the food chain out West?

The Numbers

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 68-14, No. 1 Seed

• Net Rating: first (plus-12.7)
• Offensive Rating: third (119.2)
• Defensive Rating: first (106.6)

Denver Nuggets

Record: 50-32, No. 4 seed

• Net Rating: ninth (plus-3.8)
• Offensive Rating: fourth (118.9)
• Defensive Rating: 21st (115.8)

A Battle Between MVP Candidates

It’s rare we get a series between the two best players in the league, particularly this early in the tournament. But that’s what we’ll be getting when Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander square off in this series.

Now, this isn’t exactly a fair fight. The Nuggets are deeply flawed, while the Thunder can lay claim as one of the best teams ever assembled (second-best regular season net rating in NBA history). So, this series probably won’t provide us with a definitive answer for who reigns supreme between Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander.

But there is a cool twist at play here. Since joining forces, Jokic and Jamal Murray have won eight playoff series together (Jokic won one without Murray in 2020-21). Meanwhile, despite their regular season success, the trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is largely unproven, only beating No. 8 seeds (the Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans) in their two playoff runs. Here exists a golden opportunity for the Thunder to silence all their naysayers.

These two teams can go blow-for-blow with one another offensively — Oklahoma City’s offense was just 0.3 points better per 100 possessions in the regular season. Where the disparity resides is on defense.  The Thunder have a case as one of the best defenses of the 2000s, while the Nuggets were bottom 10 in the Association this year (a contributing variable to the downfall of former head coach Michael Malone).

The Thunder are also much deeper. By the end of their series with the Clippers, the Nuggets were only comfortable giving seven players meaningful minutes (although, I contend more latitude should be offered to Julian Strawther). As for the Thunder, they gave 10 different guys consistent playing time during their four games against the Grizzlies.

The game on paper tells us the Thunder should be able to wear Denver out with their depth and defense enough to safely come out on top in this showdown. But the game isn’t played on paper. As the Houston Rockets have taught us, playoff basketball is heavily based on physicality and sheer willpower. And with Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and, to some degree, Michael Porter Jr., the Nuggets have that in spades.

Among their size, tenacity on the glass and the superhuman abilities of Jokic, the Nuggets may have a chance at pulling off the upset.

The Thunder’s X Factor: Chet Holmgren

Last season, when the Thunder fell to the Dallas Mavericks in this very round, Holmgren performed well, but his biggest weakness was also on full display. He wasn’t ready to deal with the Mavericks’ size (neither was the rest of the team, for that matter). As a result, the Thunder were out-rebounded by 28 across the six-game series.

Oklahoma City accounted for this during the offseason by signing Isaiah Hartenstein (92nd percentile offensive rebounding rate, 97th percentile defensive rebounding). This Nuggets team is even more diligent on the glass than those Mavericks were, though. Hartenstein will likely receive the Jokic matchup, but Holmgren will probably have to guard Gordon — a Greek God fresh off a marvelous Game 7 performance against Los Angeles. Even if the Thunder get creative (as they’re known to do) and put Holmgren on Braun, he’ll have to slow a battle-tested wing with biceps fit for a Lululemon fashion show.

It’s also worth noting in their final regular season clash, Holmgren struggled mightily and was a team-low minus-20 during his minutes.

Can Holmgren endure the Nuggets’ fearsome frontline to display all the futuristic gifts which make him so special? Or will Denver’s pure power cause the prodigious 7-footer to wilt away on the game’s biggest stage?

The Nuggets’ X Factor: Russell Westbrook

Westbrook currently holds the title of basketball’s greatest enigma. We saw it firsthand against the Clippers in Game 1, when he made a pair of crucial plays to secure the victory — knocking down a big three to give them the lead late in regulation and forcing a turnover which negated the Clippers’ last opportunity to tie the game in overtime. That’s Westbrook at his finest, a nuclear weapon waiting to erupt and completely eradicate his opponents into dust.

In that same game, we also witnessed the lows of the Westbrook experience. With a chance to win in regulation, he failed to hit Gordon under the rim, opted for one of an erratic drive and turned it over. That’s Westbrook at his worst: out-of-control, turning the ball over, taking questionable shots and gambling on defense.

Westbrook has a serious chance to be a real weapon for the Nuggets. He has the athleticism to credibly guard Gilgeous-Alexander, the speed to ignite their transition game and the motor to be a menace on the offensive glass. But the Nuggets’ necessary reliance on Westbrook (he’s their best bench player) could also lead to their demise because of his mercurial nature.

Prediction: Thunder In Six

Jokic is at the peak of his powers, and he isn’t going down without a fight. The Nuggets also have enough size and length to expose the Thunder’s biggest weaknesses. But Oklahoma City is ultimately too good and too deep. In the end, that will prove too much for Denver.