2025 San Diego Padres Preview: A Season with Uncertainty and Opportunity

The echoes of last October still linger. A 2-1 series lead against the Dodgers in the NLDS. Two games. Zero runs. A golden opportunity slipped away. And while their rivals in Los Angeles spent the offseason stockpiling superstars and rewriting financial norms, the Padres were left in a holding pattern, waiting for a clear path forward.

The months that followed were defined by caution, restraint, and uncertainty. A mid-February signing of Nick Pivetta. A bullpen addition in Ron Marinaccio. Minor depth moves at catcher. No major splashes.

And yet, even in the face of an offseason that felt like a missed opportunity, there is still plenty of reason for optimism in San Diego.

A Rotation With Potential – But Missing Its Ace

San Diego’s biggest offseason hope was landing Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. Instead, they enter 2025 with a hole at the top of their rotation following Joe Musgrove’s Tommy John surgery.

Musgrove, the hometown hero and stabilizing force, won’t be available this season, leaving Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, and Nick Pivetta to carry the load.

• Cease, dominant for much of 2024, saw his postseason unravel against the Dodgers. A reset is needed.
• King was a revelation, posting a 2.95 ERA with 201 strikeouts after arriving in the Juan Soto trade.
• Darvish, now 38, is still a fan favorite but battled injuries and personal challenges last year.
• Pivetta, a mid-tier addition, offers durability but lacks the upside of an ace.
• Matt Waldron, the rare knuckleballer who throws 90 mph, remains an intriguing wild card.

The Padres’ rotation may not be as deep as it once was, but there is still quality here.

Old friend alert 🚨. Dylan Cease carves up Cal Mitchell to open the contest. pic.twitter.com/hUNp2mHRxh

— FutureSox (@FutureSox) March 11, 2025

Projected 2025 Rotation:

1. Dylan Cease, RHP
2. Michael King, RHP
3. Yu Darvish, RHP
4. Nick Pivetta, RHP
5. Randy Vásquez, RHP

A Bullpen Built for October

If there’s one area where A.J. Preller delivered, it was in constructing a bullpen that can shut the door in high-leverage moments.

• Robert Suarez (36 saves, third in the NL) returns as the anchor.
• Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing, acquired at the deadline, remain in place.
• Jason Adam, a trade-deadline revelation, adds another proven arm.
• Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon provide additional depth.

This group is elite, and if the Padres find themselves in close games, they have the late-inning arms to win those battles.

Offense: A Need for Growth and Stability

The good news? The Padres put the ball in play better than anyone.
The bad news? Some of their best offensive performers from last season are gone.

• Jurickson Profar (team-high 139 wRC+) is now in Atlanta.
• Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, and David Peralta have also moved on.

That leaves Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado as the cornerstones. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez provide contact and versatility. But beyond that, depth is a concern.

The X-Factors: Bogaerts and Youth

San Diego’s offensive fate could hinge on two major unknowns:

1. Xander Bogaerts needs to rediscover his All-Star form after a disappointing 95 wRC+ season. His 2024 numbers were his worst since 2017. If the Padres get the version of Bogaerts who was an offensive force in Boston, it changes everything.
2. Jackson Merrill has to take a leap forward. The 21-year-old outfielder showed flashes, but the Padres need him to elevate his game and become a true impact bat.

Michael King vs. Xander Bogaerts 🍿 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/SGoUFGk6uu

— Julian Del Gaudio (@JulianDelGaudio) February 18, 2025

Beyond those two, the options are thin.

Eguy Rosario and Tirso Ornelas offer potential but remain unproven. Ethan Salas, one of baseball’s most exciting young prospects, won’t be ready for another year or two.

The Padres enter 2025 without the depth they’ve had in previous years. Injuries or unexpected struggles could expose the roster’s limitations quickly.

Projected 2025 Lineup:

1. Luis Arraez, 1B
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Jackson Merrill, CF
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
6. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
7. Connor Joe, DH
8. Jason Heyward, LF
9. Elias Díaz, C

Can the Padres Keep Pace in the NL West?

For years, the Padres have been in a full-throttle chase of the Dodgers, willing to trade prospects, spend big, and take risks in hopes of closing the gap.

This off-season, however, felt different.

With a murky ownership situation and uncertainty about long-term spending, San Diego opted for restraint while the Dodgers loaded up for another title run.

Still, this is not a lost season. The Padres remain a talented team. They have an elite bullpen, a capable rotation, and a lineup with stars.

But there are questions.

• Can they survive a full season without Musgrove anchoring the rotation?
• Can Bogaerts rebound and give them the offensive production they need?
• Do they have enough depth to withstand the grind of a 162-game season in the NL West?

In a different division, this roster might be enough.

But in an NL West where the Dodgers are an unstoppable force and the Diamondbacks are rising, the Padres can’t afford to be merely “good”.

They have to be great.

The road ahead won’t be easy. But for San Diego, the challenge remains the same: Keep up. Or get left behind.