2028 Election Odds: Trump Trails Obama, Michelle Leads VP Market, Fraud Allegation Expected

Key Highlights

• Oddsmakers give Obama a 66.7% chance (-200) of beating Trump in a hypothetical matchup.
• Michelle Obama is the +200 favorite (33.3%) to be Barack’s VP, ahead of Kamala Harris and AOC.
• Trump has a 75% chance (-300) to claim the election was rigged if he loses.

Trump vs. Obama 2028 Odds

2028 Presidential Candidacy

• Trump to run for third term: -150 (60%)
• Obama to run against Trump: +200 (33.3%)

2028 Election Winner

• Trump to win: +170 (37%)
• Obama to win: -200 (66.7%)

2028 Popular Vote Winner

• Trump to win popular vote: +225 (30.8%)
• Obama to win popular vote: -300 (75%)

2028 Voter Turnout

• Over 64% turnout: -110 (52.4%)
• 64% or less turnout: -110 (52.4%)
• Turnout sets all-time record: -150 (60%)

Obama Vice President Odds

• Michelle Obama: +200 (33.3%)
• Kamala Harris: +300 (25%)
• AOC: +450 (18.2%)
• Gavin Newsom: +800 (11.1%)
• Gretchen Whitmer: +1000 (9.1%)
• Wes Moore: +1200 (7.7%)
• Pete Buttigieg: +1600 (5.9%)

Trump Post-Election Behavior

• Trump to claim election was rigged if he loses: -300 (75%)

*Odds are for entertainment purposes only. All odds based on Obama vs. Trump 2028 Election

Donald Trump and Barack Obama are both constitutionally barred from running for president again. But that hasn’t stopped our expert team of oddsmakers from creating hypothetical odds featuring the two most polarizing figures in modern politics after Trump said that he would like to face Obama in the 2028 election. These markets price in a rematch, and forecast the headlines too.

BREAKING: President Trump says he would like to run against former President Barack Obama if they could run for a third term. pic.twitter.com/vVOlSkBlQ9

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) March 31, 2025

Obama Opens as Clear Favorite Over Trump for Hypothetical 2028 Election

In the head-to-head market, Obama is a -200 favorite (66.7%) to win. Trump sits at +170 (37%). That’s a meaningful gap, not a coin flip. Our oddsmakers—who have decades of experience at top sportsbooks—also make Obama a heavy favorite to win the popular vote, priced at -300 (75%) against Trump’s +225 (30.8%). These lines don’t leave much ambiguity—the experts believe the public will see Obama as the stronger candidate by a wide margin.

These odds seem to indicate Obama’s enduring appeal, his ability to command media coverage, and a belief that his message would still resonate with a polarized electorate.

Michelle Obama Leads the VP Field in 2028 Election

Michelle Obama leads the vice-presidential market at +200 (33.3%). That’s a strong number in a crowded field. The logic is straightforward—no one matches her popularity, visibility, or symbolic value as a running mate. If Barack were somehow on the ticket, bringing Michelle with him would create a narrative and media moment that’s impossible to ignore.

The rest of the field is still intriguing. Kamala Harris at +300 (25%) makes sense given her experience as VP. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at +450 (18.2%) is the high-upside wildcard, appealing to younger progressives who’ve largely moved past the Obama era. The VP odds tell a story about modern politics: familiarity and celebrity outweigh traditional credentials.

Names like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Wes Moore—while respected—trail because they don’t deliver the same kind of headlines. In this market, likability, recognition, and cultural relevance are priced higher than governing chops.

Trump Expected to Claim Fraud Again

One of the most striking lines on the board is the -300 (75%) price on Trump alleging election fraud if he loses to Obama. It mirrors the public perception after 2020 and suggests the market expects similar behavior. This isn’t about what’s fair—it’s about what’s likely. And our trading team think Trump contesting results is highly likely should the he be defeated again.

2028 Voter Turnout Odds

Turnout projections are set at 64%, with odds even on both sides. That’s near the 2020 record high. Odds on breaking that record sit at -150 (60%). The implication: voter interest in a Trump-Obama rematch would be off the charts.

Commentary

Nick Raffoul, Head of News at SportsCasting, commented on the odds:

“These aren’t just fantasy numbers—they show how people still perceive Obama as the ideal counterweight to Trump. The fact that he’s a clear favorite, even in a fictional race, says a lot about his lasting political capital.

“Michelle leading the VP odds is no surprise either—if you’re making a betting market based on name power alone, she tops the list every time. And of course, the fact that she’s Barack’s wife should help clinch the role. Another thing that stands out to me is how the odds favor Trump claiming fraud again. That’s not based on theory, it’s based on track record. The markets aren’t trying to make a political statement—they’re pricing in behavior they’ve already seen.”