Will The Raptors’ Risk In Trading For Brandon Ingram Pay Off?

When you zig, we zag. That’s been the Toronto Raptors’ MO for the last four seasons at the trade deadline. When you assume they’ll sell off their players to the highest bidders, they instead use draft capital to acquire players (and their Bird Rights) in hopes of injecting talent onto their roster. They followed that formula this time, trading Bruce Brown Jr., Kelly Olynyk a 2026 first-round pick via the Indiana Pacers and a 2031 second-round pick in exchange for New Orleans Pelicans star wing Brandon Ingram.

That sort of move isn’t typical of a 16-35 team with the NBA’s fifth-worst record, especially when considering Ingram is looking for a payday this summer and, depending on what sort of deal they land on, could make the Raptors’ core expensive in the early stages of their rebuild.

That said, their thought process, according to Raptors general manager Bobby Webster, is this isn’t some “plant the flag” move, but rather a way to recoup value for their expiring veterans and add some talent. Webster also mentioned both sides are working on an extension and Ingram is part of the long-term plans.

While that answers a few questions, it does leave out a significant component: how it will look on the court.

Ingram, for all his talents as a scorer, seems duplicative for this Raptors team, considering he operates in similar areas of the floor as Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. And while he has experience sharing space with core players, working alongside Zion Williamson the last few seasons, Ingram’s inflexibility as a defender and 3-point shooter made it harder for the pairing to work.

So, as much as this was a low-cost move for the Raptors, it is a big bet on Ingram to elevate his game and ease any fit concerns.

But what are the Raptors betting on?

Bet No. 1: More Than Meets The Eye

At 27 years old, Ingram is who he is at this point. He hasn’t played more than 64 games in a single season since his rookie year. Although he earned the Most Improved Player award and his first All-Star nod in 2019-20, he has failed to reach that stage ever since, partially due to injury woes.

Webster addressed during his trade deadline press conference, citing the front office believes the Raptors have one of the best medical staffs in the league. It’s headed up by Alex Mckechnie, who famously was part of the Lakers’ training staff during Kobe Bryant’s heyday and helped Kawhi Leonard “load manage” throughout Toronto’s 2018-19 title season.

The Pelicans, on the other hand, have been plagued with injuries to numerous players year after year, including Ingram and Williamson. Their 2024-25 campaign has been decimated by injuries to those two, as well as Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III and Jose Alvarado.

Regardless of how much Ingram’s injury woes are an internal problem or something more closely tied to shortcomings of the Pelicans’ medical staff, the Raptors are hoping long-term they can get the most healthy version of him as he enters his prime.

But even on the court, you could argue Ingram hasn’t evolved much during his time in New Orleans. Over the last five seasons, fewer than 20 percent of his shots have come at the rim, ranking roughly in the 20th percentile. He’s taken fewer than 22 percent of his shots behind the arc in three of his last five seasons, ranking in the fifth percentile at his position. While he’s had two seasons attempting over 30 percent of his shots from three, that still only ranks in the 20th percentile.

Ingram has been in the 99th percentile for midrange frequency five straight seasons. Nearly 30 percent of his shot diet consists of long midrange shots (14 feet and beyond). That isn’t an efficient shot diet in the modern NBA, where threes and layups are prioritized above all. And truthfully, he’s shown very little willingness to adapt.

Can Ingram Evolve In Toronto’s Offensive System?

That said, when he takes threes or layups, he’s good at them. Ingram is shooting 38 percent from three this season on over six attempts per game. During his All-Star season and the 2020-2021 season, he shot 39 percent and 38 percent on over six attempts as well. Despite often settling for midrange jumpers, he shoots over 65 percent at the rim when he gets there, including 73 percent over his last two seasons, which ranks in the 88th percentile during that time.

This information indicates there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to his offensive game. The Raptors are hoping a new offensive system — one predicated on quick decisions, cutting and ball movement — will allow Ingram to thrive on and off the ball.

That focus will be particularly centralized in two areas: handoffs and cuts.

The Raptors are ninth in handoff frequency and second in cutting frequency. They run their offense through Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes, who weave in and out of Delay and Flex actions asking them to be decision-makers in the high post.

Last season, Ingram was excellent using handoffs, generating over 1.15 points per possession on more than 100 total possessions. He did it in infrequently, though, and was utilized more as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, isolation scorer and transition player than a handoff hub.

However, similar to RJ Barrett, who’s seen an uptick in efficiency since joining Toronto, Ingram is elite when curling to the basket, working handoffs and catching the ball in motion. All of those characteristics pair well with the Raptors’ offensive system.

The same can be said for cuts. Ingram produced 1.5 points per 100 possessions on cuts last season, ranking in the 89th percentile. He is elite at it. The downside? He’s never had a season with over 30 possessions as a cutter.

That will have to change in Toronto. Changing that requires buy-in on his part. This is all about his willingness to do so. He hasn’t shown that yet in his career, and it would be quite the evolution if he decided to suddenly become a frequent cutter.

The Raptors are betting Ingram can stay healthy, adapt to their offensive context and grow on the margins individually.

Even if just some of those things happen, the Raptors have a very good player on their hands.

Bet No. 2: Jakob Poeltl’s Screening

Ingram spent the bulk of his time in New Orleans as a pick-and-roll-ball-handler. He logged at least 350 possessions in every full season with the Pelicans and has always been, at the very least, very good in his time operating out of those actions.

It should only improve with an elite screen-setter like Poeltl. With all due respect to Jonas Valanciunas, who is a good screen-setter and spent three seasons alongside Ingram in New Orleans, Poeltl is on a different level. The Austrian big man is sixth in screen assists this season and has helped elevate Barrett’s driving game to another level.

Ingram is already a pretty good driver. He’s in the top 25 in drives per game and shoots 53 percent, which ranks eighth in league-wide efficiency among all drivers. That should trend up with Poeltl laying out opposing defenders and allowing Ingram to get downhill or rise up for his patent midrange jumpers.

To a degree, this should help Ingram’s well-equipped isolation game. He recorded more than 2.5 isolation possessions per game last season, ranking in the 85th percentile, and averaged over 0.9 points on those possessions. The Raptors have needed a bucket-getter this next to Barnes. While they had it with Pascal Siakam, one could argue they’ve acquired a younger and, perhaps, more dynamic version in Ingram.

Why do Poeltl’s screens help here? They create mismatches. Teams will switch these actions to avoid allowing straight-line drives for Ingram. That’ll either leave a big on an island, where Ingram can create separation with the best of them, or use his speed to attack the cup.

This should also invite Ingram’s playmaking to really pop. The Raptors have been a bit of an assist farm since Darko Rajakovic took over as head coach. Barrett, Barnes, Poeltl and Quickley have all enjoyed career years in the assist department. With the way the ball moves in Toronto, Ingram can experience his best seasons as a playmaker. The foundation already exists. He’s placed in the 92nd percentile or better in assist rate every year since 2019-20.

Combining pick-and-roll craft, isolation scoring and playmaking through those actions makes Ingram incredibly hard to guard.

The Raptors are hoping these skills are amplified in Toronto with a big man like Poeltl next to him.

Bet No. 3: Length Equals Defense

Ingram is an inconsistent defender. But standing 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, it’s not hard to see he has the tools to become much better on that end. One would imagine with his size, he would be elite off the ball, frequently jumping passing lanes and rotating for blocks. But Ingram has only cracked a steal percentage of 1 percent thrice across his nine-year career.

His slender frame makes it hard for him to navigate screens consistently, and he has moments where he’ll fall asleep off the ball and get back cut. His length is better applied on the ball, where he can contest shots and leverage his height against various offensive archetypes.

It’s helped him win on that end before. During three of his six seasons in New Orleans, the Pelicans won their minutes defensively with Ingram on the floor, including 2021-22, when they were five points per 100 possessions better with him.

The Raptors have recently found more success on defense. They were the eighth-best defense in the league in January. Part of that was Barnes elevating his game, but they also leaned on their team-wide strengths to pressure the ball, particularly with Davion Mitchell (who’s since been traded to the Miami Heat). Ingram isn’t that caliber of on-ball defender. However, the theory is with his size inserted into the starting lineup, the Raptors can be a sprawling unit and frustrate opponents with their immense length.

Again, this vision coming to life requires substantial buy-in from Ingram. We’ve seen him excel defensively for stretches and in past seasons before. But can he put it together consistently while he evolves offensively? That’s the challenge.

A Risk Worth Taking

Ultimately, this is a very low-cost move for the Raptors. Brown and Olynyk were not part of their long-term picture, while the draft capital they gave up was more than worth it for a player of Ingram’s caliber. At his best, Ingram can elevate himself to being a top-30 player. It’s rare, if not impossible, for a city like Toronto to attract a name of his stature without trading for or drafting them. Acquiring his Bird Rights goes a long way in keeping him long-term, too.

It’s admittedly a little strange for a team in the Raptors’ rebuilding position to buy at the deadline. But if you squint hard enough, you can see the vision.

Over the last few transaction cycles, the Raptors have made it clear they prioritize bringing in players they believe they can develop rather than take the long-term approach of stockpiling draft capital. They did so in acquiring Poeltl, Barrett, Quickley, Ochai Agbaji and, now, Ingram. It’s not hard to understand why they feel that way.

The franchise’s most successful stretch of basketball — between 2014 and 2020 — stemmed from trades. Everyone will remember them buying low on Leonard and how that helped win a title, but even the ancillary players on that championship team came via trade. Kyle Lowry was brought in from the Houston Rockets. The Raptors traded away Terrence Ross and welcomed Serge Ibaka up North. They moved Valanciunas at the 2019 deadline and swung for Marc Gasol.

At its heart, the Ingram acquisition is how this organization has always operated.

While the 27-year-old wing has his warts, he clearly elevates the talent on the roster immediately. As he enters his prime, the hope is he can become the best version of himself and Raptors fans will get to potentially watch that unfold firsthand.

In that sense, it was a risk worth taking.