With the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline arriving Friday at 3 p.m. ET, the Montreal Canadiens are a legitimate playoff contender with the assets to make a splash.
The Canadiens have been linked to several players, including Jordan Binnington and Robert Thomas, but another center could be the most realistic target.
Montreal is listed as favorites to land Ryan O’Reilly, according to the latest betting odds. It’s a logical fit on paper but no credible reports have surfaced linking O’Reilly to the Habs.
Here’s the full picture.
Ryan O’Reilly Next Team Odds
The oddsmakers have Montreal at the top of the board with +300 odds, which implies about a 25% chance.
But the overall reporting leading up to the trade deadline tells a different story. Do the oddsmakers know something that NHL insiders don’t?
Colorado, where O’Reilly played for six seasons, is widely reported as his most likely landing spot.
Other contenders with the motivation to make a trade for O’Reilly include Minnesota and Dallas. The Wild are a contender with the assets and cap space to make a deal. Meanwhile, the Stars have Tyler Seguin on LTIR and financial flexibility to go aggressive.
Team
Odds
Montreal Canadiens
+300
Colorado Avalanche
+350
Minnesota Wild
+400
Los Angeles Kings
+500
Detroit Red Wings
+600
Buffalo Sabres
+700
Dallas Stars
+800
Vegas Golden Knights
+900
Boston Bruins
+1000
The Fit Is Undeniable
Montreal’s case for O’Reilly starts with fit. The Canadiens are a young, ascending team sitting fourth in the Eastern Conference, and GM Kent Hughes has been vocal about adding veteran leadership. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported Montreal has formally asked Nashville about O’Reilly’s availability.
It’s easy to see why. O’Reilly is having one of the best seasons of his career: 20 goals and 56 points through 57 games, over 55% on faceoffs, kills penalties, and plays strong in the defensive zone.
His résumé is a blueprint for a winner: Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe Trophy, Lady Byng, and Selke votes.
At $4.5 million through 2026–27, he’s not a rental, meaning Montreal would get a proven culture-builder for two full seasons.
The Problem: O’Reilly Wants To Stay In Nashville
The problem for Montreal isn’t effort — it’s the player himself.
According to Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts column from March 2, O’Reilly has told Nashville directly that he doesn’t want to go.
“He wants to be part of the team for the playoff push,” Friedman reported. Steven Stamkos, for what it’s worth, said the same thing.
LeBrun had already framed the situation bluntly weeks earlier: O’Reilly’s “priority coming out of the break is helping get the Predators into the playoffs. His family loves it in Nashville. There’s even been talk of a potential extension for him this summer.”
That’s not a player angling for a move. That sounds more like a player who is settled, engaged, and invested with his current team.
Here’s another problem: O’Reilly favors low-profile situations. After a half-season in Toronto in 2022–23, O’Reilly bolted for the quietest market available. He has a wife, four kids, and roots in Nashville. As one report put it plainly: “Playing in Montreal isn’t something he’d prefer for his family away from the rink.”
Nashville’s Complicated Hand
Barry Trotz doesn’t have to trade O’Reilly to a destination of his choosing. But Trotz has made clear he’ll only move him to a destination O’Reilly approves.
That’s an informal no-movement clause, and it matters.
Nashville has already started trimming: Michael McCarron and Cole Smith were dealt for draft picks Tuesday night after a loss to Columbus. But Trotz has been described as open to everything while committing to nothing. The Predators sit four points out of a playoff spot. If they rattle off wins this week, Trotz may never make the call.
To make matters more complicated, O’Reilly left Tuesday’s game in Columbus with an eye injury after taking a stick to the face. The team says he’s expected to be fine and will be evaluated Thursday.
Any physical question mark further complicates a trade that was already unlikely.
Bottom Line
Montreal checks the boxes on paper: need, assets, and a two-year contract make O’Reilly more than a rental gamble.
But two variables work against the Habs: O’Reilly’s preference for quieter markets and a tight cap that requires moving another player.
Deadline day can surprise, but right now, the road to O’Reilly runs cleaner through Colorado, Minnesota, and Dallas than through Montreal.
