After the shocking release of Chris Paul by the Los Angeles Clippers, the 40-year-old point guard is a free agent. Will he sign on with a contender to chase the NBA championship that has eluded him? Or would he be willing to sign with any team that has a need at point guard?
NBA Rumors: Which Team Will Sign Chris Paul?
The prediction outlet Polymarket has the percentages for Paul’s franchise search, and the Mavericks and the Lakers are currently listed as the frontrunners. With a 46% probability, Dallas is edging out several strong suitors in a tightly contested field. Trailing closely are the Los Angeles Lakers (43%), Sacramento Kings (41%), and Houston Rockets (41%).
Meanwhile, there’s still a 19% chance Paul ends up without a next team, which would mean that he would have already played his final game in the NBA.
The Mavericks lead most prediction models, likely driven by their need for veteran backcourt depth and leadership. With Kyrie Irving out due to injury early in the season, Dallas has shown interest in stabilizing ball control and play making, areas where Paul still brings elite savvy despite the twilight of his career.
The tension between Chris Paul and the Clippers started after he quickly stood out as the leader of the second unit, which “routinely” beat the starters, per @ramonashelburne.
“The team envisioned Paul's role as an end-of-the-bench, veteran leader who needed little maintenance,… pic.twitter.com/6bwAVI5yOX
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) December 16, 2025
Prior NBA rumors had connected Paul to Dallas during the summer free-agency cycle, and that interest appears to be resurfacing now with the Clipper exit.
The Lakers aren’t far behind in Polymarket’s model. There have always been rumors surrounding Paul and the Lakers throughout his career, and playing alongside LeBron James has long believed to be a desire. Los Angeles, with its championship aspirations and veteran ensemble, could use Paul’s high-IQ ball handling in clutch moments.
A return to the Rockets is also a possibility. Houston suffered a tough blow before the 2025-26 NBA season when Fred VanVleet was ruled out for the year after tearing his ACL, creating a massive need at point guard. Reed Sheppard has been something of a revelation filling in, but the team may still be in the market for a veteran at the position, especially for their potential playoff run.
No other franchise even comes close to the four listed above. Polymarket has the Nuggets and Thunder next in line, both listed at 7%.
