NCAA

College Football Week 5: Expert Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets

By
Colin Lynch
Author photo
Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Colin Lynch covers the NFL, MLB and WNBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the New England Patriots. His sports coverage has been featured on The Sports Daily and Basketball Insiders, as well as FanSided's Chowder & Champions. A New Hampshire native and former D1 baseball player at St. John's University, Colin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and enjoyed a four-year professional baseball career.

Get to know Colin Lynch better
Sports Editor

Published26 Sep 2024

Disclosure
We publish independently audited information that meets our strong editorial guidelines. Be aware we may earn a commission if you purchase anything via links on our pages.
College Football Week 5 Expert Picks and Predictions

College football Week 5 expert picks, predictions, and best bets are back as we gear up for an exciting slate of college football action in Week 5.

As the college football season hits Week 5, the stakes rise, and the dreams of a playoff berth loom larger. In this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff chase, each week holds the potential to shape destinies, and the pressure to perform grows with every snap.

Upsets have already shattered expectations. Standout performances have elevated teams beyond their preseason projections. And as conference play kicks into high gear, the path to the postseason becomes a proving ground for the nation’s best.

In Week 5, we’re looking for the best bets across the college football landscape. So, what are the Week 4 college football picks and best bets?

College Football Week 5 Picks and Best Bets

Wisconsin vs. USC Betting Preview

All Wisconsin vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 23.

  • Spread
    USC -14.5
  • Moneyline
    Wisconsin +475, USC -675
  • Over/Under
    50.5
  • Game Time
    Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    74 degrees, mostly sunny
  • How To Watch
    CBS

I’ve only picked one Wisconsin game so far in 2024, and it was hard to envision anything but a tough day for the Badgers, especially against Alabama. My reasoning then was simple: their offense hasn’t figured things out.

Now, with veteran quarterback and Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke out for the season, the situation doesn’t look much better. When Phil Longo was brought in as offensive coordinator under Luke Fickell, Wisconsin seemed to need a shift away from their traditional ground-and-pound toward the high-octane air raid attack Longo made famous at North Carolina. But that consistency has been elusive.

This week, the Badgers must learn from USC’s recent loss to Michigan. Despite throwing for just 32 yards, the Wolverines ran for 290 and scored 27 points to defeat the Trojans. To have a chance, Wisconsin must do the same—control the ground game, chew the clock, and keep this matchup close.

As for the quarterback situation, I’m not entirely convinced Braedyn Locke is a considerable drop-off. Locke was reportedly neck-and-neck with Van Dyke throughout much of the offseason. And when he came in for relief during garbage time against Alabama, he showed some promise. Locke finished 13-of-26 for 125 yards and threw Wisconsin’s only touchdown of the day against a stout Alabama defense.

With extra preparation time during the bye week, Locke might be ready to take the reins in this pivotal Big Ten matchup. While I still lean toward USC taking the win, I also think they’re being overvalued here, and the loss of Van Dyke might be triggering an overreaction. Look for Wisconsin to keep this one closer than many expect.

The Prediction: Wisconsin 23, USC 31

Best Bet: Wisconsin +14.5

Check out our other college football best bets!

Colorado vs. UCF Betting Preview

All Colorado vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Sept. 25.

  • Spread
    UCF -14.5
  • Moneyline
    Colorado +455, UCF -625
  • Over/Under
    63.5
  • Game Time
    Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, Fla.
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    87 degrees, rain
  • How To Watch
    Fox

Josh Hoover’s performance two weeks ago against UCF was nothing short of remarkable. He sliced through their defense with precision, throwing for 402 yards and four touchdowns, completing 35 of 52 passes. Despite his stellar play, TCU fell short. Yet the message was clear: UCF’s defense is vulnerable, and Hoover exposed those weaknesses.

Enter Shedeur Sanders. Like Hoover, Sanders has the skill set to exploit the UCF secondary. The question, though, is whether Colorado’s offensive line can provide him with the same protection Hoover enjoyed. That’s where the disparity between TCU and Colorado lies. While Hoover had time to dissect the defense, Sanders will face a different reality if his offensive line falters—a unit that has struggled to protect him consistently this season.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado’s defensive front has often been overpowered this year. Nebraska, for example, had little trouble imposing its will in the trenches. UCF thrives on running misdirection plays, opening up lanes for their dynamic backs like RJ Harvey and Johnny Richardson. The Knights’ offensive line, adept at creating space and controlling the ground game, will likely dictate the game’s flow, allowing Harvey and Richardson to thrive.

Defensively, UCF’s front will look to disrupt Sanders, and while the Colorado quarterback has pulled off some miraculous plays under pressure this season, it feels like this could be too tall an order on the road in Orlando.

The narrative surrounding Colorado’s season will take a sharp turn if the game plays out as expected. After a promising start, the talk of them being overrated will resurface, with the team left searching for answers in the trenches.

The Prediction: Colorado 23, UCF 43

Best Bet: UCF -14.5

Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Preview

All Illinois vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Sept. 26.

  • Spread
    Penn State -18
  • Moneyline
    Illinois +650, Penn State -1000
  • Over/Under
    47.5 points
  • Game Time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa.
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    66 degrees, partly cloudy
  • How To Watch
    NBC

This line was a surprise, to say the least. I expected the spread to land somewhere in the 10.5 to 12-point range with how Illinois has performed, especially on the road. Just last week, Illinois proved they could thrive in a tough road environment, playing disciplined, balanced football on both sides. While Penn State presents a tougher challenge than Nebraska, Illinois made a statement about what they’re capable of when things click.

At the heart of that effort is quarterback Luke Altmyer. His decision-making has been sharp, consistently delivering precise throws and using his mobility to extend drives when needed. He’s shown impressive accuracy, putting the ball where only his receivers can make a play, and that’s helped keep Illinois competitive. On the opposite sideline, Drew Allar has all the tools you want in a quarterback: size, arm strength, and enough mobility to escape pressure. I’ve been high on him since his freshman season, and while he has all the physical gifts, accuracy, and touch remain areas he’s still refining.

Allar hasn’t faced a defense like Illinois’s yet this season, and how he handles the pressure will be key on Saturday. The Illini defense can bring a fight, and Penn State must be sharp under the lights.

In the end, I expect Penn State to win, but it won’t be easy. Illinois will push them, making this a much tighter contest than many expect. The Illini will walk away from this game having shown they belong in the conversation as a legitimate threat in the Big Ten.

Prediction: Penn State 24, Illinois 14

Best Bet: Illinois +18

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview

All Arkansas vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Sept. 25.

  • Spread
    Texas A&M -4
  • Moneyline
    Arkansas +150, Texas A&M -180
  • Over/Under
    52.5
  • Game Time
    Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    AT&T Stadium | Arlington, Texas
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    80 degrees
  • How To Watch
    ESPN

Conner Weigman continues to recover from the AC joint sprain he suffered in Week 1, leaving his status for Texas A&M’s upcoming game as a game-time decision. Even if he’s medically cleared, it’s no guarantee he’ll take the reins back from Max Johnson, who has provided a noticeable spark for the Aggies’ offense in Weigman’s absence.

On the other side, Arkansas has quietly started 3-1 under head coach Sam Pittman for the third time in five seasons. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino’s history with this matchup adds a fascinating layer. Petrino is undefeated in Southwest Classic games, going 3-0 as Arkansas’ head coach from 2009-11. He even served as Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator during their victory in last year’s edition of the rivalry. Now back on the Razorback sideline, Petrino has crafted an unexpectedly explosive offense, building it around Arkansas’ potent ground game.

In a season where Arkansas was picked to finish near the bottom of the SEC in the preseason coaches poll, the team has outperformed those expectations, largely thanks to its rushing attack. Running back Raheim Sanders leads the SEC with 471 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and I expect him to be a major factor again. Texas A&M’s defense has shown vulnerability, particularly in stopping the run, and it’s hard to see them slowing down Sanders and the Razorbacks.

The Aggies’ offense, even with flashes of promise, remains inconsistent. Given how well Arkansas is playing and the physicality of their run game, I’m leaning toward an upset. A win would push Arkansas to 2-0 in SEC play for the first time since 2006, and I believe they have the momentum and scheme to get it done on Saturday.

Prediction: Arkansas 27, Texas A&M 24

Best Bet: Arkansas +4