It was always a foregone conclusion that Cooper Flagg would be the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. That notion came to fruition when the Dallas Mavericks called his name on Wednesday night, and the phenom from Duke University will enter the upcoming season as one of the heaviest Rookie of the Year favorites that we have seen in decades.
Cooper Flagg Heavily Favored For NBA ROY Award
According to the DraftKings sportsbook, Flagg will carry a -200 designation to take home the hardware for his first year in the league. Those are implied odds of better than 66%, with no other player on the board having greater odds than 10%.
But does that number hold all that much value? Flagg is certainly considered to be the best prospect of the bunch, but he may not be in the most optimal situation to rack up the necessary numbers to take home the award.
"Rookie of the Year, a top-two rookie season in Mavericks franchise history. … This is a dude that you build around for a generation to come."@espn_macmahon and @TimBontemps both think Cooper Flagg is a "generational" NBA talent 📈 pic.twitter.com/rCOvVyEDtE
— First Take (@FirstTake) June 26, 2025
At best, he will be the second or third scoring option for the Mavericks, at least as he gets his feet wet in the NBA. Anthony Davis will be returning at what the team hopes is full health, and Klay Thompson remains a legitimate threat in the team’s starting lineup. At the time when Cooper Flagg will be making his final award push towards the end of the 2025-26 regular season, point guard Kyrie Irving will be expected to return, adding more scoring to the mix.
Which Long Shots Hold The Best Value?
The next-lowest odds on the board belong to number two overall pick Dylan Harper. And while the Spurs’ rookie comes in at a designation of +900, he might have the same issues as Flagg when it comes to overall production. San Antonio now has something of a logjam in their backcourt, and their offense will of course be focused around Victor Wembanyama.
Tre Johnson told reporters at the Draft Combine he has no real off-court hobbies. He just likes basketball. That’s it.
Respect. (via @chasedcsports)pic.twitter.com/PwqL1SO9kk
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) June 26, 2025
Perhaps the best option on the board from a potential production standpoint is Tre Johnson. The Washington Wizards will have some longtime NBA veterans in their lineup with guys like CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, and Johnson could become the team’s key development piece.
Don’t be surprised to see the rookie out of Texas put up some of the best numbers of any first year player, and do so at a designation of +1000. That number carries implied odds of just over 9%, and the payout is 10-to-1.
