Entering Week 14, hope was simmering for the Dallas Cowboys. A three‑game winning streak had revived optimism, and their favorable remaining schedule was making a playoff appearance a real possibility. But they’d have to take on the similarly-desperate Detroit Lions on Thursday night before the drop-off in opponents, and things didn’t quite go their way in a high scoring affair.
Dallas Cowboys Playoff Odds Down To Single-Digits
And now, with just four games left to play, the Cowboys have just a 9% chance of qualifying for the postseason.
Things looked all but lost when Dallas was sitting at 3-5-1. But three straight wins, including two against the teams who appeared in the Super Bowl last year, had them above .500 heading into December. Their offense was still scoring at a high clip, but it was their defense that had improved and truly made a difference.
Last night was the 16th time in Dak Prescott's entire career where he threw for at least 375 yards.
The Dallas Cowboys are 7-9 in these games.
In those 9 losses, Dallas has given up a total of 336 points, for an average of 37.3 PPG pic.twitter.com/uv3qstPtnR
— FergSZN (@FergSZN) December 5, 2025
They were hoping that it would be the case on Thursday as well, but the unit appeared to regress back to its early-season form. The Lions scored 44 points on the night, including four rushing touchdowns, wasting Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott’s season-high yardage total of 376.
The loss crushed what little margin for error remained. According to several league‑wide playoff simulators, the Cowboys’ chance to reach the postseason now sits at roughly 9 percent. Even if Dallas wins all of its remaining games, the outlook remains bleak. Winning out and defeating the Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, and Giants would put them in the conversation, but their chances would still sit at about 50%.
The Lions playoff chances are at 55% after tonight's win while the Cowboys playoff chances have dropped to 9% with their loss pic.twitter.com/pFejF3fLuz
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 5, 2025
Part of the problem is that the rest of the NFC is stacked. Multiple wild‑card contenders have more favorable records, and division leaders and Dallas could be 2.5 games out of the division by the time the weekend is over. The Cowboys would need not only a perfect run, but also several stumbles by other teams down the stretch.
Prescott and company will have 9 days off before they return to action on December 14th.
