Deni Avdija Is On The Brink Of Stardom

Last season, while he was having a career year with the Washington Wizards, I wrote about Deni Avdija’s ceiling in which I envisioned an outcome where he became a less-bouncy, better-passing version of Aaron Gordon.

That analogy is a compliment. Over the years, Gordon has molded his game to become a top-50ish NBA player and one of the preeminent role players in the Association.

However, upon further review, even that lofty comparison seems to be selling Avdija’s true potential short. Avdija has the skills to be a great role player, but he also has the means to take it a step further. He has what it takes to be a star.

A Subtle Leap

On the surface, Avdija’s 15.1 points per game aren’t a significant step up from the 14.7 points he averaged last year. But that number is partially diluted by a slow start to 2024-25 — his first with the Portland Trail Blazers. Since Dec. 1 (a 40-game sample), Avdija is averaging 16.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists on 62 percent true shooting. The Blazers are 19-21 in that span after starting the season 9-17. Avdija’s growth throughout the year is exemplified by his rolling Estimated Plus-Minus (courtesy of the good folks at Dunks & Threes):

Why Avdija Deserves More Usage

Avdija’s slash line over the past 40 games still doesn’t scream star player. But I’m willing to wager he can do more if given more opportunity. Even since he shook off cold start, he’s only fifth on the Blazers in field goal attempts, despite being third in points per game and true shooting percentage.

Generally speaking, to take more shots, players must have ways to create more shots for themselves. The easiest way to do so is to bring the ball up the floor and attack the paint with reckless abandon. This form of shot creation is a superpower of Avdija’s. On the season, he ranks in the 83rd percentile in drives per 36 minutes and the 92nd percentile in true shooting percentage on drives, per Thinking Basketball.

His downhill juice produces three wonderful things. First, it forces the defense to collapse, which creates open kickout passes to teammates (more on this in a moment). Second, it allows him to generate shots at the rim (80th percentile rim attempts per 75 possessions). Third, and most importantly, it gives Avdija a chance to earn freebies at the charity stripe.

Avdija is taking 6.0 free throws per 75 possessions. That’s good for 18th in the NBA among all non-centers, Almost everyone ahead of him on the list has been selected to at least one All-Star Game (the two exceptions are Cam Thomas and Jonathan Kuminga). Free throws are the most efficient shot in the sport, and all the greats have a knack for generating them.

Another way to net yourself more shooting attempts is to be able to operate in pick-and-roll. Avdija is in the 72nd percentile in pick-and-roll efficiency. His penchant for paint pressure helps him here, but what really separates him from Gordon’s archetype are his distribution skills.

His assist percentage has been above the 70th percentile for the last two years and his Passer Rating hasn’t been under the 67th percentile since his rookie season. More than any citable metric, this effortless, live dribble skip pass tells you everything you need to know:

Along with his force and vision, Avdija has worked tirelessly to make himself a serviceable shooter. Over the last two seasons, he’s hit 35.8 percent of his threes and 75.7 percent of his free throws.

All this leads me to believe that, if given more primacy on offense, he could be a 20-point scorer with good efficiency. We’ve already seen this sort of bump in the minutes he’s played without Anfernee Simons (Portland’s leading scorer) this season:

A Two-Way Force

All this talk centered on Avdija’s offensive usage makes him even more intriguing because he actually came into the NBA as a defense-first prospect. He’s never been an elite ball hawk or weak-side rim protector. But it’s OK because he’s still league average in both those areas. And what he lacks there, he makes up for with his 6-foot-9 frame, strength, physicality and feel. Arguably his best attribute is his ability to handle difficult matchups against bigger wings and forwards.

Impact metrics don’t love Avdija’s defense this season. However, much of that could be tied to the Blazers having terrible opponent shooting luck when he’s on the floor (19th percentile opponent 3-point percentage in his minutes, per Cleaning the Glass). Besides, the other four years on his resume are squeaky clean. Other than this season, his Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus has never been lower than 69th percentile, and it’s previously peaked in the 85th percentile (2021-22).

Is Stardom In The Cards?

If Avdija embraces the offensive role I envision for him, his defense will certainly take a step back — a common theme among most players throughout league history. Yet given his acumen on that end of the floor, I don’t see it taking enough of a dip to the point he isn’t still considered a high-usage two-way player.

In that way, I now see Avdija as more similar to Franz Wagner rather than in Gordon’s mold. Like Avdija, Wagner is a positive defender with good size who uses his blend of skill, aggression and craft to also be a high-level offensive player. Before an oblique injury sidelined him for an extended period this season, Wagner was en route to his first career All-Star appearance — a feat Avdija is roughly one mini-leap away from being eligible for himself.