Does Kevin Durant Make The Houston Rockets Title Contenders?

After weeks of rumors and hypothetical deals, the Kevin Durant Sweepstakes have come to a conclusion, and the winner is none other than the Houston Rockets. 

BREAKING: The Phoenix Suns are trading two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the No. 10 pick in the 2025 draft and five second-round picks, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/EwrbA2ES9O

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 22, 2025

While there is much to discuss from the Phoenix Suns’ side of things (Is Devin Booker next? Are they planning to keep Jalen Green? Who will they look to draft with the 10th overall pick?), the immediate focus should be turned to the Rockets. Namely, the question is whether they’re now true inner-circle title contenders?

How Durant Makes The Rockets Better

Before I shift to the Xs and Os of the deal, it is worth noting regardless of whether the Rockets compete for a title next season, this is a good piece of business. Action Network’s Matt Moore put it best:

Houston
a. gets Durant
b. keeps Phoenix's long-term future
c. gets clear of Jalen Green's contract
d. still has ability to make other moves
e. Keeps Amen, Sengun AND Jabari
f. clears room for Sheppard and maybe Whitmore

Home run. Five stars.

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 22, 2025

I disagree with the general sentiment the Suns got totally fleeced, as I think people are greatly overestimating Durant’s value on the open market at this point, but I digress. However, the Rockets did a good job of acquiring an all-timer while retaining all their premium assets. 

Now, where were we? The Rockets won 52 games last season behind an elite defense (fourth in defensive rating) and tenacious transition attack (eighth in points per play, per Cleaning the Glass). Their downfall ended up being an uninspiring half-court offense (23rd in points per possession) — a devastating weakness in postseason basketball. 

As I recently discussed with the Orlando Magic, spacing and on-ball creation/ball-handling are what power healthy teams when an initial stampede toward the rim fizzles out. 

In Durant, the Rockets landed one of the greatest shot-makers the league has ever seen. Even at the ripe old age of 36, Durant was one of just 11 players this past season to attempt at least 500 pull-up jumpers and maintain an effective field goal percentage over 50 percent (per NBA.com). Adding that element will do wonders to help a Rockets team which finished 27th in this category during the regular season.

As the proud owner of one of the smoothest jumpers ever — a career 39 percent 3-point shooter and 88.2 percent free throw shooter — Durant should also provide a boost in spacing; the Rockets were 21st in 3-point percentage in 2024-25. However, that boost will be a limited one, as Durant’s slow release has made it difficult for him to launch a high volume of catch-and-shoot threes in the past (45th percentile over the last three years, per Thinking Basketball).

Houston, We Still Have Problems

Durant may be able to get a bucket for himself, but he’s never quite been a strong enough creator to be the lead initiator on a championship-level offense. He’s just an OK passer (52nd percentile Passer Rating), and his size works against him as a ball-handler because he’s an easy target for professional pickpocketers (below-average turnover rate the last five years). 

This leaves a lot of weight on the shoulders of Fred VanVleet, a player who just posted his worst scoring rate and efficiency since his rookie campaign. 

Now, this could be remedied by a leap from their franchise cornerstone, Amen Thompson. But that is a humongous ask for one of the worst jump-shooters in the league. Among the 177 players to take at least 90 pull-up jumpers, Thompson ranked 162nd in effective field goal percentage (35.8). 

There’s also a tradeoff the Rockets are subjecting themselves to by giving Durant 30-35 minutes each night. For all his wonderful gifts, he’s never been one to crave physicality. Much of what made the Rockets so dangerous this past year is the brute force they played with every single possession. They were first in offensive rebounding rate by 3.1 percent, a greater margin than the one separating the second- (Portland Trail Blazers) and 12th-ranked (Orlando Magic) teams. 

This is all without factoring in Durant’s age (he’ll be 37 at the start of next season) and injury history (he’s missed at least 20 games in five of the last six seasons). While his game projects to age like fine wine, one must wonder how much he has left in the tank.

The Rockets are a better team now than they were Sunday morning. That’s the goal when making a trade like this. Plus, they still have the flexibility to gain another marquee name and help further bolster their offense. Yet at this moment in time, the Rockets don’t have enough ponies in the stable to be considered a true inner-circle contender entering 2025-26.