Duke Return Would Cost Cooper Flagg $125 Million In Career NBA Earnings

There has been rampant speculation that Duke freshman Cooper Flagg could return to Durham, North Carolina for his sophomore season with the Blue Devils. There is very little precedent for potential No. 1 overall picks returning to school for another year of college eligibility but Flagg’s decision could be a game-changer if he decides to go back to school. Below, we’ll break down why Flagg is unlikely to return to Duke despite earning millions in NIL money during his time in a Blue Devils’ uniform.

Could Cooper Flagg Really Return To Duke?

One of the factors cited in Flagg’s potential return to Duke has been his ability to earn millions both on and off the court during his college career. According to ON3, Flagg has earned a whopping $4.8 million in NIL earnings during his freshman season, the second-highest valuation of any player in college sports behind only Texas quarterback Arch Manning. 

However, per ESPN analyst Bobby Marks, a decision to return to Duke could be quite costly for the 18-year-old star. While Flagg could still earn millions on campus, he would be forfeiting anywhere from $75 to $125 million in earnings during the backend of his NBA career by delaying his arrival in the league. This is because he would be postponing the start of his service clock for his second and third NBA contracts, which could hurt his ability to sign a supermax type deal towards the end of his career. 

Add in the threat of a career-ending injury and the overall risk for returning to Duke doesn’t seem worth the gamble, especially for a potential No. 1 overall pick.

Estimating Cooper Flagg’s Supermax Deal In The NBA

Supermax contracts are a type of extension available for players with 10 years of service that awards them up to 35% of the total cap space allotted to that team for up to five years.

The current NBA salary cap is set at $140.588 million but that number could grow to between $300 and $400 million by 2035 thanks to the NBA’s recent media rights deal, which is valued at $77 billion. The league is projecting the salary cap to increase by a maximum 10% annually, which would be great news for Flagg.

By the time he’s eligible for a Supermax deal, Flagg’s contract could be in the range of 5 or 6 years and $600-$700 million, assuming the salary cap number inflates to around $300 million.

Flagg’s Supermax deal would likely start at 35% of the cap, or around $105 million for the first year, with annual raises of approximately 8%. By the final year of the deal, his salary could approach $140 million.