Houston Basketball: Which Cougars Have the Highest NBA Potential?

The Houston Cougars are one of college basketball’s best teams, ranking fourth in the recent AP Top 25 poll. At 24-4, Houston dominates high-caliber opponents with their top ranked defense (per Bart Torvik). Kelvin Sampson and his high intensity, pressuring defensive scheme deserve credit, but the players are executing on the court.

High-level college baskettball teams often see at least some of their stars translate to the NBA in some capacity. This Houston team doesn’t feature many big name prospects, with only one Cougar featuring on Tankathon’s top-76. Productive, impactful college players often fly under the radar and carve out NBA careers, though. Let’s discuss the merits of Houston’s most prominent NBA Draft prospects.

Joseph Tugler, F/C

Tugler is the only player on Houston to receive mainstream draft consideration this cycle, slotting at 49th on Tankathon’s board. The 6’8 sophomore dominates on the defensive end as the engine of a smothering Houston defense. His elite explosiveness, length and mobility let him cause chaos and defend the rim at a high level.

Despite his relatively shorter height, Tugler posts an enormous 13.5% block rate, ranking third in the nation and first among high major players. He’s a freaky vertical athlete, exploding off of the ground with almost no load time. Houston often sends Tugler out to pressure the ball, where he can fly around the court to cover ground and block shots.

jojo tugler rim protection pic.twitter.com/pmNkWaxygQ

— bjpfclips (@bjpfclips) February 25, 2025

His height will limit Tugler’s defense against larger centers and he’s a bit reckless at times, fouling a staggering 6.2 times per 40 minutes (third highest among high major players). But Tugler’s defensive ceiling as a versatile, inside-out big is clear. Offense will be his major obstacle to sticking in the NBA.

Tugler’s main forms of offense come as an offensive rebounder, roll finisher and post scorer. The former two should translate to some extent given his tools and solid intermediate touch, but Tugler’s scoring projection is murky. He’s not a 3-point shooter and converts a paltry 45.7% of his half court layups, casting some dount on his NBA offensive translation.

Teams will covet Tugler for his energy, physical gifts and defensive utility. He’ll need to dominate as a lob and roll finisher and offensive rebounder to stick in the league as a role playing big. Despite his offensive warts, though, bigs with Tugler’s tools and defensive production are worth investing in late in drafts.

Terrance Arceneaux, F

If I had to bet on one current Houston player to stick in an NBA rotation, I’d bet on Arceneaux. The 6’5, 21-year-old wing tore his Achilles in October of 2024 yet is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Like Tugler, Arceneaux’s main NBA appeal comes on the defensive end, mainly as a disruptive off-ball defender.

Houston’s aggressive, pressuring defense relies on bigs like Tugler who can pressure and play in space. More than anything, though, it relies on off-ball defenders who cover ground, rotate on the weak side and erase defensive mistakes. Arceneaux’s big space mobility and ground covering skills are rare as a result of his elite mobility and instincts.

Those off-ball traits lead to plentiful turnover generation (3.1% steal rate) and regularly closed off actions. Arceneaux struggled as a point of attack defender early in his career but has loosened his hips and lightened his feet since then. He’s still prone to misplacing his feet and doesn’t have the fastest hips, but Arceneaux flashes impressive on-ball stopping ability.

terrance arceneaux POA defense pic.twitter.com/5Jmwi54hTk

— bjpfclips (@bjpfclips) February 25, 2025

Arceneaux took a shooting leap this season, making 37.9% of his triples this season. He’s a limited driving creator who must add tons of functional strength, but the bones of a productive off-ball, low-usage wing are there. The NBA loves 3-and-D wings and Arceneaux has the physical and mental potential to develop into a needle moving defender. That’s a valuable commodity, one worth more draft consideration than Arceneaux receives.

Milos Uzan, Guard

After spending his first two seasons at Oklahoma, Uzan is reaching new career heights as Cougar this season. He’s always navigated defenses with his tight, controlled handle and that’s still the case. Few guards in the country dribble as well as Uzan can, setting up his moves with changes of pace and direction and setting up passes to his teammates.

He’s making smarter decisions than ever, represented by his sparkling 3.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. Uzan is an efficient pick and roll handler at this level given his control of the ball and passing vision on the move. His touch and craft are both fantastic, as Uzan finishes around the rim with both hands. He’ll flick touch shots in whenever he has space, shooting an excellent 47% on his runners this season.

At the NBA level, Uzan’s lack of burst and power might limit his on-ball utility. He’s not the quickest or strongest player and can struggle to generate open looks, especially at the rim (15.1% free-throw rate). A sub-par 18% of Uzan’s half-court shots come at the rim, relying on his intermediate game to score instead.

Uzan’s improved 3-point shooting — he’s hitting career higs in volume (7.2 per 100 possessions) and efficiency (42.9%) could help him settle into an off-ball role. If Uzan makes the NBA, it will likely come from his shooting threat unlocking his off-ball driving. He’s far from a lock to make the league, but Uzan’s handling, touch and improved shooting make him worth monitoring as a long-term prospect.

Emanuel Sharp, Guard

Sharp is one of the nation’s most productive and impactful players for Houston. The 6’3 guard ranks fifth in the country in box plus minus (11.6), trailing the likes of Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome. He’s an elite shotmaker, draining 43.1% of his 13.5 3-point attempts per 100 possessions this season. Sharp pulls from different platforms off of the dribble, displaying NBA quality shooting versatility.

Like Uzan, Sharp must prove he can drive effectively (11.1% half-court rim frequency) to succeed as an NBA guard. Teams will covet his dynamic shotmaking though, especially paired with his excellent defense and solid decision making. Sharp will be another long-term prospect scouts will monitor, hoping he can develop into an NBA-level 3-and-D guard.