Why The Houston Rockets Are Built For Success In The NBA Playoffs

Every year, it seems there’s at least one team that fares well in the regular season, ranking among the top four in their conference, before fizzling out in the first round against a more proven adversary.

A token example is the 2022-23 Sacramento Kings. Their aesthetically pleasing style enabled them to end to their 16-year playoff drought en route to the Western Conference’s third seed. However, they were ultimately vanquished by the defending champion Golden State Warriors in seven games during the first round.

This year, many people seem to view the Houston Rockets in the same light. After missing the postseason each of the last four seasons, the youthful Rockets boast a 52-27 record and sit second in the loaded West — setting them up for a first-round date with any one of the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies or Minnesota Timberwolves.

Given how battle-tested all those teams are, it feels like the Rockets are just a stepping stone for one of the old lions and should merely be satisfied with their regular season success. But they’re far more than a feel-good story and their first-round opponent will soon find out.

Benefits Of The Rockets’ Physicality

The Rockets roster unproven playoff creators in Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, and subpar spacing around them (21st in 3-point attempts per game) has led to serious questions about their offense. They may rank 12th overall in offensive rating, but they’re only 23rd in the half-court (per Cleaning the Glass), which doesn’t portend well for the methodical nature of postseason basketball.

This criticism is fair, yet still lacking some nuance. The Rockets have been great about leveraging their youth and athleticism to the tune of an eighth-ranked transition offense. Playoff teams are typically better equipped and more determined to get back on defense than the opponents the Rockets have beat up on in the regular season (they’re 21-6 against the bottom 10 teams record-wise this year).

But physicality is harder to slow down than a general transition game. Houston leads the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage. Yes, playoff teams will be more diligent about boxing out. However, it’s hard for anyone to match the pure force with which the Rockets crash the offensive glass. This proves especially true when they roll out their twin tower lineup featuring Şengün and Steven Adams.

Adams is one of the best rebounders of his generation (100th percentile offensive rebounding rate among bigs this year). Whenever he’s on the floor, a team’s most brutish player must be tasked to bang with him on the block. Şengün, on the other hand, is one of the most devastating post scorers in the league. So, a sturdy soldier is also needed to handle him.

This puts opponents in a bind. Few teams have the personnel to handle both Adams and Şengün inside. So, they’re forced to pick their poison, enabling the other center to have their way in the paint. This was evident during the Rockets’ recent victory over the seemingly unbeatable Oklahoma City Thunder. Notice how the Thunder stash Isaiah Hartenstein on Şengün to ideally neutralize him, which requires Chet Holmgren to contend with Adams:

Normally, when teams have a problem defending a particular player or tandem, they hunt them on the other end to offset the damage. In this case, teams could try putting one of Houston’s slower-footed bigs in actions defensively that force them to quickly and continuously cover lots of ground.

To counter this, Houston head coach Ime Udoka has concocted his version of a 2-3/matchup zone. This enables both Adams and Şengün to stay near the paint and play to their strengths as rim protectors and rebounders.

Zone defense often gets a bad reputation for making players lazy because they only have to guard certain parts of the court. But with how sophisticated offenses are now, it’s become a necessary evil as defenses attempt to keep pace. The Rockets have embraced these unorthodox coverages, junking up some of the best teams in the league with this off-speed pitch.

Thanks to Udoka’s creativity and the foot speed of the Rockets’ wings, they reap the benefits of Adams-Şengün lineups without enduring the drawbacks. Across their 156 minutes together, the Rockets have an explosive 128.4 offensive rating and a suffocating 93.6 defensive rating, good for a dominant 34.8 net rating, per PBP Stats.

Houston’s Size Can Help It Win In The Playoffs

This physically imposing duo is tough to wrangle with for opponents. But more than that, the Rockets’ size will put teams on the ropes. We’ve seen them play 6-foot-10 Jabari Smith Jr. at small forward when those two are on the floor (plus-41.1 net rating with that trio), as well as slot 6-foot-7 Amen Thompson at guard  (plus-37.3).

That four-man combination doesn’t offer spacing. But who needs that when Houston can grind teams down defensively (third in defensive rating) then blitz them in the paint with power and ferocity?

Over these last few days, the Rockets took down two of the West’s best teams in the Thunder and Golden State Warriors by simply being bigger and more physical than them. They won the points in the paint battle by an average of nine points in those games.

The Rockets are still flawed. If they run into a team like the Los Angeles Clippers — which can adequately match their size and force them to beat them with off-the-dribble creation and shooting — they likely won’t have enough ponies in the stable to make it across the finish line victorious.

But that isn’t a demerit on the Rockets’ quality overall. Pretty much every team in the Western Conference is vulnerable against certain bad matchups. Besides, if they run into the right team, one that can’t handle their presence inside, they’ll live up to their reputation as the No 2 seed, advance to the second round and make clear they’re more than just a regular season darling.