MLB

Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Looking For a Juan Soto Type Contract?

Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Published14 Mar 2025

Disclosure

We publish independently audited content meeting strict editorial standards. While our content features sponsored links, from which we may earn a commission, this does not influence our recommendations.

Half a billion dollars.

That’s the staggering number Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reportedly turned down from the Toronto Blue Jays. But as is often the case in baseball’s new era of contracts, the fine print tells a different story.

According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the offer came with significant deferred money—enough to bring the deal’s present-day value down to somewhere between $400 million and $450 million. Guerrero was open to deferrals, but he wanted one thing in return: the full $500 million on paper.

The debate over baseball’s biggest contracts has changed. Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers? Its real value is closer to $460 million due to aggressive deferrals. Juan Soto’s $765 million megadeal with the Mets? Every penny is guaranteed, with potential escalators pushing it past $800 million.

Guerrero, just 25 years old and heading into a contract year, understands this game as well as anyone. Speaking to ESPN last week, he revealed he wasn’t seeking Soto’s numbers but wanted something similar in structure.

“It’s much less than Soto. We’re talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. … It was the same number of years [as Soto’s contract], but it didn’t reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn’t reach 600.”

For Toronto, this is uncharted territory. Guerrero is the face of the franchise, but does he command the type of deal that locks in a player for 14 or 15 years?

"They had their numbers, I had my numbers."

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. confirms he and the Blue Jays did not reach an agreement on a contract extension before his Monday-night deadline. pic.twitter.com/97Ci90EOSV

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 18, 2025

Is Guerrero Worth the Mega Deal?

On the open market, youth is currency.

Guerrero, like Soto, will hit free agency before turning 27—a prime window for long-term commitments. But his production has been inconsistent compared to the sport’s true outliers.

Consider OPS+—a stat that adjusts for ballpark factors and league-wide trends:

Guerrero’s best OPS+ seasons? 167 in 2021, 134 in 2022, 118 in 2023.
Soto’s worst OPS+? 142, as a 19-year-old rookie in 2018.
Aaron Judge hasn’t dipped below 143 since his debut.
Even Mike Trout, in a so-called “down year,” posted a 132 OPS+ in 2023.

The power? It’s there. The ability to carry an offense for a decade? That’s what evaluators are still debating.

Still, free agency doesn’t reward past production. It bets on the future.

And Guerrero’s upside remains tantalizing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Single Today:
117.6mph off bat
> 2nd hardest tracked ball in play in MLB Spring Training this year
> Hardest base hit by Guerrero since 2022 (t-6th hardest of his career)

It took 3 seconds to travel from bat to LF…. jeeeeeez. pic.twitter.com/V6cUcB4HxD

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) March 14, 2025

The Deferral Trend in Baseball

Mega-contracts in baseball aren’t just about dollars anymore. They’re about time.

Deferred money has become a staple in MLB’s biggest deals:

Bobby Bonilla was a pioneer.
Max Scherzer turned it into an art form.
Ohtani perfected it—deferring 97% of his record-setting deal.

Teams love this system because it lowers luxury tax penalties and improves roster flexibility. Players are often willing to accept it because of signing bonuses or structured payout plans.

It’s a loophole in the financial structure of baseball. And unless MLB intervenes, it’s here to stay.

The Blue Jays tried to use it on Guerrero. He said no.