Why The Utah Jazz Got A Draft-Day Steal In Isaiah Collier

While besmirched by those tasked with covering it, the 2024 NBA Draft has produced its fair share of intriguing players. Some would say the Utah Jazz drafted three of those fellows and recently, one of them has caught my eye.

Out of high school, Isaiah Collier was viewed as one of the top players in the country (ranked No. 2 in his class by 247Sports). Unfortunately, a rocky freshmen season at USC led to him failing all the way to 29th in the Draft. Collier hasn’t let that slow him down, though, as the 20-year-old has flashed plenty of promise in year one.

But what are his strengths? What are his weaknesses? And how good can fans hope for him to become?

Offense

I’d be remiss not to start this section by showcasing Collier’s super power as a basketball player: his decision-making.

Isaiah Collier, 20, has averaged 8.1 APG over his last 20 games. He’s the fourth rookie in the last ten years (and the first in Jazz franchise history) to average 8+ APG over a 20-game span. The tape is impressive: pic.twitter.com/dgO4JySr6N

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) February 9, 2025

The highlight montage adequately encapsulates Collier’s ability to make pretty much any type of delivery in the book, but what’s more impressive is how he can exploit even the smallest defensive weaknesses.

Collier isn’t an efficient scorer yet (fourth percentile in true shooting). So, when he attacks, he isn’t always capable of creating major advantages. Instead, he must capitalize on the little lapses defenses can be prone to from time-to-time.

In this clip, he initiates a pick-and-roll. However, the Portland Trail Blazers’ decision to deploy a deep drop against him (because they don’t respect his jumper) leaves the rookie without an obvious next move. Collier doesn’t concede the action, though. He quickly identifies defensive ace Toumani Camara was late rotating to a lifting Johnny Juzang, leading to a relatively open 3-point attempt.

Here, another pick-and-roll fails to produce an immediate power play. So, Collier wisely maintains his dribble in the paint (a technique known as Nashing) and makes Amen Thompson pay for forgetting about the sharpshooting Lauri Markkanen in the corner.

Despite a desire to play with the ball in his hands (97th percentile in time of possession, per Thinking Basketball), Collier can still map the floor quickly without it, prompting sweet connector passes like this:

Now, he isn’t perfect. He misses passes, throws sloppy ones (first percentile in turnover rate), and has a tendency to leave his feet without a solid plan in place; all these flaws are on display in this possession. Still, he is the best rookie passer I can personally remember since Josh Giddey and Cade Cunningham in 2022-23. On the season, Collier is leading all rookies in assists (averaging nine per 75 possessions).

Collier’s excellent playmaking is critical to crafting significant offensive impact because shooting the ball isn’t his strong suit. After shooting just 33.8 percent from three in college, Collier is hitting an abysmal 23.9 percent of his threes as a pro. His other touch indicators are just as bleak (33 percent on long midrange, 63.3 percent on free throws), so don’t hold your breath he develops into a great shooter.

Collier’s jumper may require divine intervention, but his inside game provides a beacon of hope he can still be a credible scorer. His raw rim shooting reeks of rookie (14th percentile, per Dunks & Threes), but filtering it down to only include his non-garbage time attempts makes him look far more efficient (54th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass).

More importantly, he’s getting to the hoop a ton. He’s in the 76th percentile among point guards in frequency of shots around the rim. Even a below average, high frequency finisher can help their team’s offense because a below average attempt at the rim is more efficient than most jump shots. On top of that, Collier’s aforementioned ability to identify and attack the slightest cracks in the defense will compensate for his limitations as a scorer. Ideally, his blend of driving and passing can override his scoring woes long-term.

Defense

Rookies are typically terrible on defense, and Collier is no exception to the rule. Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus places Collier in the third percentile league-wide. That isn’t just a case of a defensive metric over-indexing on team results — the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA — either.

Collier’s defensive tape is littered with gaffes and instances of working harder not smarter. In the first clip, he completely falls for his own trick and loses his man in the corner. Second, he forgets to rotate over as the low man when the ball gets flipped to the opposite side (making him the weak-side defender). And in the third play, he walls off Anfernee Simons’ initial drive, but overcommitted while trying to stop it, which left him vulnerable to the counter spin.

Fortunately, Collier is young, athletic and has a sturdy frame (6 feet 4 inches and 210 pounds). There is no reason why he can’t turn himself into a passable guard defender — with some switchability, thanks to his size — if he is willing to do so.

The Outlook

Collier’s pristine vision and powerful frame loosely resemble former All-Star guard Baron Davis. But if he wants to become a high-level point guard, he’ll need to take major strides as a scorer while also improving as a defender. If he can’t do those things or only does one of them, his decision-making gives him a high enough floor to at least be quality bench player/fringe starter.

In any event, it’s clear the Jazz got a massive steal with the 29th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.