Sports

Why A Jalen Green Breakout Is The Key To The Houston Rockets’ Playoff Hopes

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Jalen Green

As the clock ticked below the four-minute mark, Jalen Green held the ball with the game tied against the Memphis Grizzlies. They showed two bodies late in the clock at Green, who coughed the basketball up:

A few minutes later, Green found himself in the same situation with his Rockets up two. As the shot clock wound down, Brandon Clarke and Jaylen Wells blitzed Green and forced another turnover. This has been the story of his career — flashes of greatness sprinkled in between large portions of poor decision-making:

These two late turnovers may have sunk the Green of old, but that’s not how this story ended. Houston ended up winning this game, topping Memphis by just two points. Green had arguably the best game of his career, dropping 42 points on 18 shots alongside four assists. This performance, more than any other, exemplifies his recent growth.

Following his second late turnover, the Rockets held the lead to their next offensive possession. Memphis deployed two bodies at Green once again, hoping to fluster him into another mistake. He didn’t falter again, though, evacuating the ball in the middle of the floor to Alperen Şengün, who found Amen Thompson for an open dunk:

With 40 seconds remaining, the Rockets trailed the Grizzlies by one and the ball was in his hands again. Memphis stuck to its formula. It sent Jaren Jackson Jr. to the level of the screen, where he pressured Green. But this time, he easily rounded the trap, elevated and finished the eventual game-winner over Clarke:

Is This A True Breakout Or Just Another Hot Stretch?

For a player who’s prone to hot stretches, this recent period might be Green’s best yet. Across his 10 games in January, he has averaged 28.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists on a scorching 65.3 percent true shooting mark. From October to the end of December, he averaged 19.3 points per game on 53 percent true shooting.

Upholding this level of play to some degree will be the critical factor for Houston’s playoff hopes. The Rockets’ half-court offense could limit their offensive potency when teams game-plan more intently and limit transition opportunities. At his best, Green’s advantage creation and shotmaking unlock a new dimension against set defenses.

Across the entire season, the Rockets boast the ninth-best offensive rating but are 25th in half-court offensive rating, according to Cleaning the Glass. Green’s recent offensive explosion is boosting their half-court offense substantially. Since the beginning of January, their half-court offense has jumped from 25th to 18th, boding more favorably for a playoff setting.

It’s reasonable to question his sustainability, given his comically high 3-point efficiency. In January, he’s converted 47 percent of his threes, as well as 52 percent of his midrange jumpers. He’s especially hot inside the paint, making 61 percent of his short midrange shots (between 4 and 14 feet). Before January, Green had made 31 percent of his 3-pointers and 26 percent of his midrange shots.

His relative slump at the rim provides some optimism for him maintaining this run. On the entire season, Green has been excellent as a finisher, shooting a career-high 68 percent at the hoop. In January, he’s dipped to 58 percent at the rim. Some regression in both directions could still lead to an efficient shot profile overall.

Why Green Is So Important For The Rockets

This might be his best stretch to date, but we won’t know if it’s a genuine leap until he continues this play for more time. If he can, Houston’s position in the NBA becomes far more favorable. It’s missing a true half-court engine and Green flashes the potential to be that player.

Houston’s reliance on Green — and Fred VanVleet, to a similar tune — makes extending these performances imperative. Without Green at his peak powers or VanVleet on the floor, the Rockets’ half-court offense sputters, short on capable ball-handlers and decision-makers. When both Green and VanVleet are off the floor (250 minutes), the Rockets’ offensive rating is a paltry 105.2, according to PBP Stats.

Without their electric transition game as a safety net, offense often appears challenging for the Rockets. Green can be their skeleton key, scoring himself and creating easier drive-and-kick chances for his teammates. He’s still a defensive negative, but Houston has the talent on that end to cover for him.

Green’s recent play makes his value evident. Can he harness his powers for more than just a blip in time, like he did to lift his team over the Grizzlies? The Rockets’ fate this season and beyond may hinge on his ability to do so.