Can Jimmy Butler Turn The Golden State Warriors Into Contenders?

Over the last few days, it has become a running joke that the Golden State Warriors are throwing darts at whatever target they can hit. It’s an effort to add one more marquee name alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in the hopes of making one last run with their two franchise icons. Finally, all their efforts have paid off. They not only added a fresh face, but landed one of the biggest prizes on the market, orchestrating a blockbuster trade for six-time All-Star and playoff legend Jimmy Butler.

But how much better does this trade make them? And is it enough to extend the dynasty just a little bit longer?

The Pros

As is the case with stars on flawed rosters, the Warriors are a damn good team when they have Curry on the floor. Unfortunately, even though sometimes he gets so incandescent he can convince you otherwise, Curry is just one man. And when that one brilliant gentleman is off the floor, the cookie starts to crumble for Golden State rather quickly.

According to PBP Stats, the Warriors have a 118.3 offensive rating when Curry is on the floor, which drops to 106.1 while he’s on the bench.

Butler can provide a lifeline whenever Curry needs a breather. During his tenure, the Miami Heat offense was always significantly better with him on the floor. Even amid this awkward 2024-25 campaign, their offensive rating was 9.8 points better per 100 possessions when their thorny star was on the court (96th percentile), partly because of the versatile on-ball creation he instills.

Leaders in points per 100 scoring opportunities as the ball handler on picks, isos, or post-ups. pic.twitter.com/3QFpZbmqOG

— Todd Whitehead (@CrumpledJumper) February 6, 2025

Butler also excels at something Curry has been doing less of this season: getting to the free throw line. Butler hasn’t finished outside of the 92nd percentile in free-throw attempt rate since 2014, and over the last six seasons, he’s been in the 98th percentile or higher!

The Warriors are currently last in free throw to field goal attempt ratio, which is a big reason why they sit just 20th in offensive rating. Being able to unlock more tries at the most valuable shot in the sport will bring an immediate boost to their ailing attack.

Jonathan Kuminga can also live at the free-throw line when he really gets in a groove (97th percentile free-throw rate). However, his style often clashes with head coach Steve Kerr’s sophisticated motion-heavy offense. Butler — a man known as much for his brain as his bronze — doesn’t come with this drawback, making him a better fit for the way Kerr likes his teams to play the game.

More than his offensive exploits, Butler is a two-way wing every team covets greatly. Defensively, you don’t need to hide him on weaker offensive players. Rather, he lives to shadow players listed on the top of scouting reports.

Now, age and countless deep playoff runs have caught up to him, so he isn’t the point-of-attack ace from his earlier years. But he’s still a gifted ball hawk (78th percentile in steal rate last season). This will help the Warriors generate more turnovers and, by extension, more fast-break opportunities — creating another pathway to boost their offense.

The Cons

This isn’t your grandfather, dad or even older brother’s Butler. There’s a reason the Heat didn’t want to extend him (outside of his bashful nature). He’s 35 years old and has only missed fewer than 20 games once in the last six seasons.

On top of that, he’s coming off a season when he missed the playoffs altogether because of a knee injury he incurred during the Play-In Tournament. He, Curry (36) and Green (will be 35 next month) aren’t the players they once were. Their combined fragility is a threat to tank this core before they even get going.

Even if they all manage to stay relatively healthy, there are on-court issues that make this new trio less than ideal. Butler has hit a couple of big threes in career. Yet for the most part, he is not a true perimeter spacer (10th percentile in threes per 75 possessions, according to Dunks & Threes).

Sure, spacing isn’t entirely based on 3-point shooting. Physicality and well-timed cuts can mask shortcomings in this department. Even then, the Warriors will almost have at least two below-average shooters on the floor in key moments with Butler and Green. And that number could balloon higher if Kerr wants to close games with guys like Kuminga, Gary Payton II or Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Curry may be the greatest shooter ever, but at least two other above-average shooters are required out there alongside Butler and Green in a postseason setting. I’m not entirely sure the Warriors can piece that together with their current roster (maybe, Moses Moody and Buddy Hield are up for the challenge?).

Then, there is the issue of rim pressure. As it stands, the Warriors are 26th in rim frequency. Butler himself gets to the hoop a good amount (87th percentile in rim rate). But he also ends up settling for a lot of short midrange shots. Historically, his teams have struggled to rank highly in this area; during each of the last four seasons, Miami ranked 25th or lower in rim frequency.

The Bottom Line

To be a true contender, a team needs to be an elite offense, an elite defense or balanced on both sides of the ball (top 10 offensively and defensively). I don’t see Butler uplifting this Warriors offense so much they become the Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns. Despite his defensive pedigree, it’s also tricky to see the league’s ninth-ranked defense turning into the 2004 Detroit Pistons after this move.

So, that means the Warriors will need to maintain their defensive level while also becoming a top-10 offense. Can Butler spearhead that rise? Given the spacing concerns and his lack of elite rim pressure, it is tricky to see that vision becoming a reality. Although, his on-ball creation, free-throw drawing, transition excellence, and high feel put it in the realm of possibility.

There’s no doubt the Warriors got better by trading for Butler. But in all likelihood, they are still a piece or two short of truly competing with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference. Still, given all Curry and Green have done for the organization, it’s worth taking this leap of faith to see if they can’t make magic happen one more time.