College Basketball

JT Toppin’s Return Highlights NIL Boom Driving College Basketball’s Star Exodus Halt

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By
Colin Lynch
Author photo
Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Colin Lynch covers the NFL, MLB and WNBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the New England Patriots. His sports coverage has been featured on The Sports Daily and Basketball Insiders, as well as FanSided's Chowder & Champions. A New Hampshire native and former D1 baseball player at St. John's University, Colin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and enjoyed a four-year professional baseball career.

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Published01 May 2025

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JT Toppin’s Return Highlights NIL Boom Driving College Basketball’s Star Exodus Halt

NIL deals have college basketball underclassmen heading back to college for another shot at glory and an opportunity at a bigger paycheck. 

After Texas Tech’s heart-wrenching Elite Eight collapse—blowing a nine-point lead in the final minutes against Florida—the Red Raiders received a surge of optimism. JT Toppin, the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year and a second-team All-American, stunned NBA draft projections by announcing he’ll return for his junior season in Lubbock. In an era when underclassmen routinely chase pro contracts, Toppin’s decision underscores the seismic shift ushered in by the NIL era.

From Draft Board to Bedlam’s Center Stage

Just months ago, scouts penciled Toppin in as a potential second-round pick. A 6-foot-9 forward with a border-line NBA skill set, he might once have forfeited college eligibility. Today, however, Toppin stands to earn an estimated $4 million through name-image-likeness deals at Texas Tech—more than what a rookie outside the lottery can expect under the 2025-26 salary scale. For a player of his caliber, the calculus has flipped: why sprint to the pros when the most lucrative contract waits on campus?

Toppin isn’t alone. Purdue’s first-team All-American point guard Braden Smith “is running it back one last time,” punching his ticket as the preseason Wooden Award favorite. Florida’s Thomas Haugh, fresh off a national title run, cast aside pro overtures to chase another championship. Alex Karaban, the last fixture from UConn’s back-to-back title teams, opted for a senior campaign in pursuit of a third ring and a higher draft stock in 2026.

Deep Roster Pockets Fuel the Arms Race

Power conferences are answering with open checkbooks. According to industry whispers, a dozen-plus programs will field NIL budgets north of $10 million next season, while mid-major contenders are girding for $6–8 million to remain competitive. The stakes have never been higher, and the marketplace has never been deeper. Once-modest sums for elite returnees have ballooned into seven-figure guarantees, a testament to college basketball’s newfound commercial horsepower.

This year’s early entrant pool shrank to just 106 hopefuls—the fewest since 2015—down from a dizzying 353 in 2021. Underclassmen on the NBA fringe, once destined for two-way contracts or overseas stints, now see campus life as the better bargain. “There’s not that big of a market in the NBA for a certain type of big man,” Armando Bacot noted in 2022, “so being able to come back to college and make money is a really good option.” His sentiment rings truer than ever.

Sustainability or Spectacle?

But questions loom: can this salary structure endure? Will college stars continue to out-earn G League contracts and marginal NBA roles? The answer remains unwritten. What’s undeniable, though, is that the sport is richer for it. Fans will flock to arenas overflowing with proven names rather than one-and-done prospects. And for now, college basketball’s renaissance is center stage—anchored by talents like JT Toppin, who chose to stay and soar.