How Julius Randle Is Powering The Timberwolves’ Late Season Surge

Early in the fourth quarter of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ emphatic March 2 victory over the Phoenix Suns, Julius Randle, active for his first game in more than a month, made clear the type of massively impactful player he could be — and is performing as — over the final six weeks of the regular season.

After Nickeil Alexander-Walker misfired on a triple, Randle lumbered into the lane, smacked a defensive rebound away from Mason Plumlee, ejected himself toward the front row and flung the ball into Naz Reid’s clutches. Fifteen seconds later, after creeping from the weak-side corner to the dunker spot, he received a slick Alexander-Walker feed and detonated a dunk over the tardy Ryan Dunn.

Randle ended the evening with 20 points (8-of-14 shooting), six boards and three assists. The win would kick off Minnesota’s eight-game winning streak, which ended Monday night in an overtime defeat against the shorthanded Indiana Pacers. Despite the loss, the Timberwolves have been transformed since Randle’s return, in part because the three-time All-Star has adapted his game to help ignite this turnaround.

Over that span, they’re 8-1 with league’s best net rating, while sitting third in offensive and defensive rating. A fairly light schedule (they’re 1-1 against teams above .500 during this period) has aided their resurgence. But even then, they’re one of just five teams (Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Boston, Memphis) to rank top 10 in both offense and defense this season, and are eighth in net rating (plus-4.8).

This is a very good team finally finding its footing after a seismic offseason trade reoriented its identity, rotation and connectivity shortly before training camp six months ago. Randle, Minnesota’s headlining return in that seismic offseason trade, is among the main proponents behind the club distancing itself from the malaise of .500 ball and reversing course on a sputtering encore to a Western Conference Finals appearance last year.

Julius Randle Is Adapting

The former New York Knick typically stamps his mark as a deliberate, bruising face-up scorer. He’ll catch the ball in the mid-post, at the elbows or around the top of the key and survey his options before chiseling into a midrange jumper, shot near the hoop or playmaking chance for somebody else. Yet that deliberate nature can be a detriment offensively and exacerbates a primary issue of Minnesota’s offense: stagnation. Since returning from injury, he’s spurned some of his methodical ways in favor of decisiveness, both as a passer and scorer.

During his first 48 games of the season, he averaged 3.31 seconds and 2.32 dribbles per touch. He dished out 4.5 assists per game, 7.8 potential assists and created 11.7 points via assists. Across the past nine games, he’s averaging 2.69 seconds and 1.76 dribbles per touch. Those assist numbers have vaulted to 5.8, 9.3 and 15.7, respectively.

Randle pressures defenses immensely with his presence inside the arc and they often direct help into his orbit. Now, he’s better capitalizing on that attention, executing quicker, sharper decisions.

Minnesota is fifth in both 3-point rate and efficiency, with five of its eight rotation players shooting at least 39 percent beyond the arc. Send extra bodies toward Randle and the surrounding personnel will punish that gambit. He’s increasingly cognizant of those options, as well as how to anticipate help, and the Timberwolves are flourishing because of it. With Randle, they’re third in offensive rating over their past nine games after placing 14th during his first 48 games.

It’s not solely about his on-ball approach and the benefit of that tweak either, though. Anecdotally, he is cutting, screening and moving more often this month. When the action is not flowing through his decisions, he is finding other lanes to contribute and blending in as an off-ball cog. According to Cleaning the Glass, 52 percent of his field goals came via assists prior to March. Since returning, that mark has risen to 63 percent.

On the whole, Randle’s scoring efficiency has perked up from 18.9 points on 57.8 percent true shooting before the All-Star Break to 18.1 points on 61.8 percent true shooting since re-entering the lineup. That’s the product of newfound movement spurring cleaner looks and an even greater willingness to maul the paint as a downhill attacker (free-throw rate has jumped from .371 pre-injury to .480 in March). He is helping dictate Minnesota’s offensive flow without dominating it, a dichotomy which has previously escaped his game at times and capped the ceiling of his impact.

Increased Ball Movement

Randle’s evolution is seemingly permeating throughout the entire Timberwolves rotation. Everyone is delivering snappier decisions off of the catch and moving keenly without the ball. Whereas sticky possessions were once a hallmark of their offensive ethos, they feel more like an aberration these days.

Randle and Anthony Edwards drive this possession, as they routinely do for Minnesota, but it’s such an apt depiction of how smoothly the offense is humming. The two stars tilt the Nuggets’ defense toward them, while Jaden McDaniels is who punctuates the sequence.

Nothing Randle does there shows up in the box score, but it’s all undeniably critical. He could’ve easily stepped through and lofted up that leaner in the paint, a shot he’s attempted and made plenty of times. Heck, he could’ve lacked the presence of mind to immediately fill the vacant space Edwards left behind, which ultimately clarified a passing window to McDaniels.

Edwards could’ve elevated for the contested pull-up, a shot he’s attempted and made plenty of times. Instead, the ball and bodies kept shifting, and McDaniels (16 points per game on 65 percent true shooting in nine March outings) canned the open jumper.

The tempo and discernment with which Randle and Edwards operate are tone-setters for the Timberwolves’ philosophies. With Randle in the fold before the All-Star Break, they logged 283.6 passes per game (18th league-wide) and 65.9 points via assists (20th). This month, they’re recording 302.8 passes per game (ninth) and 75.7 points via assists (sixth). There also appears to be an emphasis on advance passes and getting the ball up the floor quicker to jumpstart fast breaks — a continuation of their heightened ball movement.

During Randle’s first 48 games, Minnesota’s transition frequency was 13.3 percent (28th in the NBA) and it generated 124.8 points per 100 transition possessions (15th). It was not a voluminous or productive running team. Since he returned, the Timberwolves are sixth in transition rate (14.5 percent) and fifth in points per possession (139.1).

Regardless as to whether this development was organic or concretely enforced, it underscores a paramount rhythm bubbling within their offense that’s often been absent over the past few seasons. They’re cohesively running, moving and passing around one another to forge, extend and maintain advantages into fruitful offensive trips. That makes for a potent unit, given the stress Randle and Edwards inflict upon defenses, the vast collection of shooting and the trusty, prompt decision-making of everyone involved in this attack.

Donte DiVincenzo’s Impact

While his re-emergence following a lengthy absence did not *immediately* usher in a winning streak, Donte DiVincenzo — the other half of the return package for Karl-Anthony Towns — is instrumental in Minnesota’s revival. After returning on Feb. 27, the nomadic wingman is averaging 14.5 points, 4.5 assists (0.7 turnovers), 3.8 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 11 games. He’s shooting 47.7 percent from deep on 8.0 attempts a night and posting a tidy 66.3 percent true shooting clip. The Timberwolves are plus-103 in 301 minutes with him on the court and plus-four in 232 minutes without him.

DiVincenzo’s foremost value offensively is as an unabashedly elite off-ball shooter. He jacks threes curling around screens, stations himself well beyond the arc to elongate closeouts when defenders help off and dabbles in some off-the-bounce bombs if afforded ample room (8-of-18, 44.4 percent on pull-up threes the past 11 games).

Beyond that, he also offers Minnesota a high-minutes option (and closer) at guard in place of Mike Conley Jr., who’s steadied a bit after a slow start but is still not the same caliber of player as last year or the season prior. Though a different archetype than Conley (and superior player, at this point), DiVincenzo provides complementary ball-handling and can facilitate empty corner actions on the wings, much like the veteran point guard.

Conley’s services in that role were vital throughout 2023-24, so DiVincenzo bringing high-level shooting and ancillary playmaking are necessary components for Minnesota’s offensive viability. Even if most wanted to simply cast blame on Randle, it’s no coincidence the Timberwolves were uneven as Conley and DiVincenzo struggled (or missed time) and have since turned the corner with DiVincenzo playing like his 2023-24 self again.

Whoever mans that second guard spot next to Edwards must ace their duties. Conley largely did a season ago. This season, DiVincenzo is — on both ends. He’s been a defensive dynamo, slithering over screens to stay attached at the point of attack and buzzing around off the ball for steals and brilliant help rotations.

Just How Far Can The Timberwolves Go?

Three weeks ago, Minnesota was 32-29, maligned by injury and ninth in the West, half a game ahead of the 10th-seeded Sacramento Kings. Then, Randle got healthy and morphed his style to best accentuate the Timberwolves’ well-rounded rotation, most of which has also thrived amid this run. At 40-30, they’ve climbed to seventh, only percentage points back of the 39-29, sixth-seeded Golden State Warriors and 3.5 games behind the fourth-place Los Angeles Lakers.

With 12 games left, parlaying their rise into a top-four seed is pretty unlikely. But they do own the NBA’s third-easiest remaining schedule in terms of opponent win percentage, while the Lakers (fourth-hardest), Memphis Grizzlies (ninth) and Denver Nuggets (10th) — three teams above them — are all among the top 10 in hardest remaining slates.

Minnesota’s schedule includes games against lottery-bound teams like the Brooklyn Nets (x2), New Orleans Pelicans (x2), Utah Jazz and Philadelphia 76ers. There is certainly an opportunity to stack wins and further build credence in the prosperous formula it’s subscribed to this month. The latter half is far more important than earning any specific seed (of course, avoiding the Play-In Tournament’s pressurized variance would be preferred).

Last year, the Timberwolves knew who they were from start to finish and conveyed that self-assurance with their play. This year, radical, unexpected change suspended their self-assurance and chemistry. Time was required to rediscover all of it. Albeit in a new form featuring some different pieces, they’ve mostly re-established both components.

Armed with a superstar who’s positively reshaped his own game this year and is renowned for playoff explosions, a co-star embracing his optimal role and a deep, multifaceted supporting cast comfortable in its jobs, the Timberwolves are becoming a dangerous postseason foe. That label alone doesn’t distinguish them from the traffic jam of the West’s 2-8 seeds, yet it’s also not a label they really warranted three weeks ago.

They are ascending, capable of making serious noise this spring. And much of it stems from the facelift Julius Randle — once an easy target for their bumpy, mercurial play — has helped shepherd the past few weeks. For numerous reasons, these are not the 2023-24 Timberwolves. Their record and seeding will broadly reflect as much. But they absolutely may be just as lethal, and that’s more relevant than anything else.