The Kansas City Chiefs faced a make-or-break situation on Sunday in their game against the Indianapolis Colts. But instead of coming up short in a close contest for the 6th time this season, they were able to pull off a victory against one of the top teams in the NFL to keep their postseason hopes afloat.
But just how likely is it that Patrick Mahomes and company will be securing a playoff spot?
Chiefs Keep Hopes Alive With Big Win Over Colts
After their much-needed victory, the Chiefs are currently sitting at 6-5. It is their worst record through 11 games since before Mahomes took over as the team’s starting quarterback in 2018, and they are currently sitting in third place in the AFC West. They had won nine-straight division titles coming into the season.
THE CHIEFS GET THE OT WIN pic.twitter.com/EedpsJODlr
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 23, 2025
According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, Kansas City has a 57% chance of qualifying for the postseason after Sunday’s big win. The same formula gives them a 12% chance of making up a three-game deficit in order to overtake the Denver Broncos for the division lead, and just a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
It is a far cry from the expected (and resulted) dominance that the Chiefs have been used to seeing for the last 7–8 years.
If they do indeed hold on and make their 11th straight playoff appearance, they’ll likely have to play away from Arrowhead Stadium. It was thought that the lack of home field advantage would be an issue in 2023, though, and Mahomes won two big road contests on the way to leading his team to a Super Bowl victory.
Well… The Chiefs is still The Chiefs
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 23, 2025
Based on their remaining opponent’s winning percentage, the Chiefs have the 11th-softest schedule in the NFL down the stretch. They have important divisional contests against the Broncos and Chargers looming, but will get to take on the Titans and Raiders in two of the final three weeks of the season.
First, though, they’ll play in a marquee matchup this Thursday. In the second game scheduled for Thanksgiving, the Chiefs will take on the Cowboys in AT&T Stadium, and they are currently favored by 4.5 points heading into the contest.
