College Basketball

March Madness: No Double-Digit Point Spread Upsets In Round 1 For First Time Since 2019

Anthony Cardenas Sports Editor

Published23 Mar 2025

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The first round of the 2025 Men’s NCAA March Madness Tournament featured two 12-seeds pulling off upsets. But there weren’t as many underdogs overcoming large point spreads this year, as we saw no double-digit betting odds overcome for the first time since 2019.

Fewer First Round Upsets In March Madness 2025 Than Previous Years

In the nine March Madness tournaments since 2015, seven of them saw point spreads of 10+ overcome during the first round of action. Just last season, we saw 14-seed Oakland enter their game against 3-seed Kentucky as 13.5-point underdogs. The same was true for Yale, who faced a 13.5-point spread in their 3 vs. 14 matchup against Auburn. Both Oakland and Yale won outright.

There were two such cases in 2023, as well. That year, Fairleigh Dickinson became just the second 16-seed to ever upset a 1-seed during March Madness, overcoming a 23.5-point underdog designation. It remains as the biggest first round upset since at least 2015.

Biggest First Round Upsets Since 2015
Year	Underdog	Favorite	Spread	Final Score
2023	16 FDU	1 Purdue	23.5	FDU 63, PUR 58
2018	16 UMBC	1 Virginia	20.5	UMBC 74, Virginia 54
2022	15 St. Peters	2 Kentucky	18	St. Pete 85, Kentucky 79
2016	15 Middle Tenn	2 Michigan St	16.5	Midd Tenn 90, MSU 81
2021	15 Oral Roberts	2 Ohio State	15	Oral Rob 75, OSU 72

Since the March Madness 2015, there have only been two instances in which there were no double-digit upsets in the first round of action. It happened in 2017, when there were just five seeding upsets overall. It was also the case in 2019, though there were a total of eight seeding upsets. But that would be the last time that it would happen until the current iteration of the tournament.

This year, the biggest first round point spread that was overcome was McNeese State’s upset of Clemson. The Tigers were 7.5-point favorites in the 12 vs. 5 matchup, but wound up losing by two. It was one of two 12 vs. 5 upsets in 2025, but Colorado State was favored in their contest against Memphis.

As far as seeding is concerned, the 5 total first round upsets this year were tied for the fewest in the first round in the last 10 March Madness tournaments. In 2016, there were 10 first round upsets, including 15-seeded Middle Tennessee taking down Michigan State, who entered as 16.5-point favorites.