Friday’s MLB best bets include wins for the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays in matchups favoring form, bullpens, and pitching edges.
Friday’s MLB slate features a fresh set of three-game series, and with playoff races heating up, each win carries added weight. We’ve zeroed in on three games where team form, starting pitching, and bullpen dynamics align to create value on the moneyline and run line. Tampa Bay gets a familiar rematch against a hittable Baltimore starter. The Yankees return to the Bronx in a prime spot against the Athletics’ struggling bullpen. And Toronto looks to continue its recent dominance over Boston behind a red-hot Jose Berríos. Here’s why each team offers value as a favorite heading into Friday night’s action.
Rays vs. Orioles: Trust Pepiot and the Trends
Ryan Pepiot dominated the Orioles earlier this month and enters Friday’s rematch in strong form, with a 3.04 ERA across 94.2 innings. He’s also thrived away from home, allowing just two home runs on the road all season. While backing a starter in a close-proximity rematch is usually a risky proposition, Pepiot’s track record and pitch mix seem to hold up well against this Baltimore lineup.
8 innings, 11 strikeouts.
Ryan Pepiot is becoming an ace right in front of our eyes. pic.twitter.com/lt4yHb9T1g
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) June 17, 2025
Koji Sugano takes the mound for the Orioles, but there are red flags. Despite a serviceable 3.55 ERA, Sugano’s low strikeout rate and high barrel percentage make him a liability, especially against a Rays team that’s won 10 of its last 13 games. Camden Yards hasn’t been kind to Sugano either; eight of the 14 home runs he’s surrendered have come at home, in fewer innings than on the road.
Back Tampa Bay to continue its run and open the series with a win.
✅ Pick: Rays ML (-118)
Athletics vs. Yankees: Back the Bronx Bombers to Cover
Will Warren is finding his rhythm. After an uneven start to the season, the Yankees’ right-hander has turned in three strong outings in a row, posting a 2.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts across 18 innings. With the Yankees returning home after a short road swing, Warren is in a solid spot to keep building momentum.
A strong outing for Will Warren 👏#RepBX pic.twitter.com/fEYsK0OLzB
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 13, 2025
The Athletics are countering with Mitch Spence, who’s making just his fifth start of the season. While Spence has flashed some promise, he rarely goes deep into games, which means a heavy reliance on a bullpen that currently owns MLB’s worst ERA (6.01). The Yankees, despite some recent inconsistency at the plate, are averaging nearly five runs per game over the last week, and are likely to tee off late once Spence exits.
The mismatch between bullpens is stark, and the Yankees have the bats to capitalize. Expect New York to create separation and cover the run line at home.
✅ Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-105)
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays: Ride the Hot Hand in Berríos
Jose Berríos has been one of the more consistent arms in Toronto’s rotation this season, and his recent form speaks volumes. He’s allowed just one run in four of his last five starts and has already faced the Red Sox twice this year, logging 13.2 innings and giving up only three earned runs.
José Berríos, Wicked 84mph Slurve…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/1itbfBBUtF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2025
Boston enters this one on a five-game skid, struggling to find consistency at the plate. The Red Sox are hitting just .225 over the past week and averaging fewer than four runs per game. While Brayan Bello has looked strong in back-to-back outings, he’s also shown vulnerability in earlier starts this month, and it’s unclear which version will show up.
Toronto, meanwhile, ranks third in batting average this season and has scored 30 runs in its last six games. With the bats clicking and Berríos in command, the Blue Jays are well-positioned to take Game 1 of this series.
✅ Pick: Blue Jays ML (-115)
