Monday’s MLB best bets feature Blue Jays ML value, a strong First 5 under in Boston, and Jacob Lopez’s K prop.
Monday’s MLB schedule features just eight games, but that hasn’t stopped value from surfacing in key matchups. Our betting team has zeroed in on three spots offering solid angles—from a live underdog in Toronto, to a pitchers’ duel in Boston, and a player prop worth locking in early.
As the playoff race sharpens and rotations normalize across the league, sharp bettors are focusing more on splits, bullpen form, and underlying metrics. Let’s break down Monday’s top plays, featuring veterans like Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodón and emerging strikeout arms like Jacob Lopez and Chase Burns.
Blue Jays ML (+130) at Yankees: A Buy-Low Spot on Scherzer
Max Scherzer isn’t what he used to be, but he’s still worth betting on when healthy. After returning from a grip issue with improved velocity (93.2 mph, up from 91.9), the veteran righty looks closer to his pre-injury form. His Stuff+ ticked back up to 98 in his last start, and with more time between outings, he should be more stable in this one.
The matchup also favors Toronto. The Blue Jays are much better against left-handed pitching (115 wRC+ vs. LHP), and they’ll face Carlos Rodón, who has been strong but not as dominant as his surface ERA suggests (2.87 xERA, 3.36 xFIP). Rodón’s underlying metrics indicate some overperformance, particularly in strikeout-to-walk rate.
Toronto also holds the edge in bullpen depth and defensive efficiency, ranking in the top 10 in both areas. In a near coin-flip matchup, there’s value backing the Jays as slight road dogs.
✅ Pick: Blue Jays ML (+130 | playable to +115)
Max Scherzer…of the Toronto Blue Jays.
2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/m7CIduP6Tq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 25, 2025
Reds vs. Red Sox: First 5 Under 4 in an Elite Arms Battle
This one shapes up as one of the best pitchers’ duels of the week. Garrett Crochet has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender, leading the majors in strikeouts while allowing two earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 17 starts. His command, velocity, and pitch mix continue to neutralize both lefties and righties.
Across the diamond, Chase Burns lived up to the hype in his MLB debut. Facing the Yankees, he struck out eight in five innings, flashing elite swing-and-miss stuff. The Red Sox have historically struggled with power righties, and their recent numbers back that up, ranking 25th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. RHP in June.
On the flip side, Cincinnati remains near the bottom of the league in production vs. left-handers since May. With both lineups struggling in their weaker splits, this matchup promises a low-scoring start.
✅ Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4 (-115)
6 strikeouts through 2 innings 🔥
If you’re not watching Chase Burns’ debut, you should be. pic.twitter.com/EVi5hTiWM9
— MLB (@MLB) June 24, 2025
Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-148): Ride the Momentum
Jacob Lopez has quietly become one of the more bankable strikeout arms in the league over the past month. He’s cleared 4.5 Ks in five straight outings, including three games with nine or more punchouts. His pitch sequencing and ability to generate chases out of the zone have taken a clear leap.
He draws a great matchup Monday against a Rays lineup that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate in the league vs. left-handed pitching over the past 30 days. If Lopez can work into the fifth inning, he has a strong shot to hit this number early.
The juice is creeping up on this prop, and it may close closer to 5.5, so getting in now is a smart move.
✅ Pick: Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-148)
Jacob Lopez, Filthy 80mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/xOVsmTH2wX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 26, 2025
