The first day of July offers a strong slate of MLB action with several intriguing betting opportunities across the board. While public money is flooding popular favorites like the Tigers and Yankees, there’s plenty of value hiding in contrarian spots and player props. Tuesday’s matchups present a chance to fade some overhyped strikeout lines and back a sneaky home underdog with sharp money appeal.
Whether it’s fading Max Fried’s strikeout total, leaning into Freddy Peralta’s vulnerability against lefties, or trusting the Nationals to pull off an upset, the board offers more edges than meets the eye. Here are three best bets to consider for Monday’s MLB action.
Max Fried, Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom and Yoshinobu Yamamoto all take the bump on a jam-packed Tuesday full of baseball! pic.twitter.com/PEk1Ssgm03
— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2025
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best Bet: Fade Fried’s Strikeout Prop
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Pick: Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
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Fried has recorded 7+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts, but this matchup is unfavorable.
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Blue Jays projected to start nine right-handed hitters, limiting Fried’s effectiveness.
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Fried’s K-rate vs. righties is down to 23% this season.
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8 of 9 projected hitters in Toronto’s lineup strike out under 19% of the time vs. lefties.
Fried has been a strikeout machine lately, hitting seven or more punchouts in four of his last five outings. But this matchup against the Blue Jays is one of the toughest he’s faced. Toronto is expected to roll out a lineup stacked with nine right-handed hitters, and Fried’s strikeout rate against righties has dipped to just 23% this season. On top of that, eight of those nine hitters have a K-rate below 19% versus left-handed pitching. It’s a disciplined lineup that doesn’t swing and miss much, and that makes Fried’s 5.5 strikeout prop an attractive under on Monday.
Max Fried on the bump for a rare Tuesday day game due to Canada Day pic.twitter.com/eu5BHbJduV
— Talkin’ Yanks (@TalkinYanks) July 1, 2025
Tigers vs. Nationals Prediction: Public on Tigers, But Value on D.C.
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Pick: Nationals ML (+125)
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Despite the Tigers’ dominance (best record in MLB), the value lies with the Nats as a home underdog.
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Public heavily on Detroit:
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74% of spread bets, 81% of money
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81% of moneyline bets, 84% of money
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85% of total bets on the over
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Contrarian spot where Washington can take advantage of inflated odds.
The Tigers enter Monday with the best record in baseball and a strong hold on the AL Central, which makes them a popular public play. But the Nationals are showing up as a live dog in this spot. Despite more than 80% of bets and money coming in on Detroit, oddsmakers haven’t shifted the line drastically — a sign of respected money backing Washington. It’s a classic value situation where fading the public could pay off. The Nats have shown life at home and can take advantage if the Tigers get caught looking ahead. Take the plus-money shot on D.C. here.
Brewers vs. Mets Best Bet: Peralta in a Tough Spot
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Pick: Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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Mets lineup projects six left-handed hitters, and low strikeout tendencies (just 20.5% K-rate vs. RHP).
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Peralta’s K-rate vs. lefties is only 23%, compared to 28% vs. righties.
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His CSW% also dips significantly against left-handers (24.5%).
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Matchup sets up poorly for Peralta to clear his strikeout line.
Peralta has found his form lately, but this is a matchup that doesn’t favor his strikeout upside. The Mets lineup is projected to feature six left-handed hitters, and Peralta’s numbers take a dip against lefties — just a 23% strikeout rate and a 24.5% CSW% compared to 28% against right-handers. The Mets also rank among the better teams in strikeout avoidance against right-handed pitching, with a combined 20.5% strikeout rate. It’s the wrong profile for Peralta to go deep or dominate on the mound, and this number is worth fading given the matchup context.
Freddy Peralta, Wicked 85mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/dlwqvGwWbe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 14, 2025
