Betting on strikeouts is the name of the game in Monday’s MLB player props slate. Jacob deGrom and Janson Junk headline the best MLB player props with matchups tailor-made for punchouts. Here’s why both are solid bets.
After a long holiday weekend, baseball bettors return to a full Monday slate with several matchups offering sharp edges, especially when it comes to pitching strikeout props.
Two arms in particular stand out: one is a two-time Cy Young winner regaining form, and the other is a fringe starter whose pitch mix could be deadly against a whiff-prone opponent. These are our top MLB player prop bets for July 7.
Top MLB Player Prop Bets for Monday, July 7
Janson Junk Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: FDSNFL, FDSNOH
Janson Junk may not be a household name, but this is a classic case of a pitcher whose pitch arsenal fits the weakness of the opposing lineup. Junk gets solid whiff rates with his slider and sweeper, two pitches the Cincinnati Reds struggle to handle.
Over the last 10 games, only the Pirates have struck out more than the Reds in the National League. This trend isn’t just noise, it reflects deeper issues in Cincinnati’s offense, which includes seven hitters in Monday’s projected lineup with above-average strikeout rates against at least one of Junk’s go-to pitches.
Even though the Reds typically don’t chase out of the zone much, Junk’s stuff has been effective in drawing whiffs when located well. Add in the plus-money price, and this becomes a value-laden play worth riding.
Why it works:
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Reds rank bottom-2 in MLB in strikeout rate over their last 10 games.
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Junk’s slider and sweeper generate swing-and-miss rates that match up well with the Reds’ weaknesses.
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Seven projected hitters for the Reds have high K-rates vs. those pitch types.
SP FIP Leaders (min. 30 IP)
1) Janson Junk – 1.83
2) Tarik Skubal – 1.87
3) Logan Webb – 2.33
4) Nathan Eovaldi – 2.37
5) Paul Skenes – 2.41pic.twitter.com/jVMrw5V5RU— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) July 7, 2025
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-154)
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: RSN, FDSNW
The Jacob deGrom we’re seeing now looks awfully close to vintage form—and that’s bad news for the strikeout-happy Los Angeles Angels.
In his last two starts, deGrom has logged 14 strikeouts over 13 innings while allowing just two earned runs. His command is tightening up, and the velocity and bite on his breaking pitches are returning.
The Angels, meanwhile, are baseball’s worst team at making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, managing a league-worst 47.5% contact rate. That’s a nightmare matchup against deGrom’s elite slider, which remains his main strikeout weapon.
This Angels lineup includes five hitters with well-above-average strikeout rates, particularly against sliders, putting them in an awful spot against a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber. The only thing standing in the way of this over is pitch count—assuming a normal workload, this feels like a layup.
Why it works:
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Angels make less contact on pitches outside the zone than any team in MLB.
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deGrom has allowed just 2 earned runs and struck out 14 over his last 13 innings.
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His slider is particularly effective against a lineup filled with swing-and-miss hitters.
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5x All-Star, Jacob deGrom ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/7QPQtZlOIa
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) July 6, 2025
Final Thoughts: Strikeouts and Smart Matchups
This two-pack of strikeout props is grounded in both trends and matchup data. Janson Junk gets a Reds lineup struggling with whiffs, and Jacob deGrom faces an Angels squad that chases out of the zone and can’t make contact.
With the strikeout market offering value on both ends of the odds spectrum—plus-money for Junk, and heavy juice for the always-dominant deGrom—Monday’s slate presents strong betting opportunities for prop bettors focused on pitcher performance.
Monday’s Best MLB Player Props Recap:
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Janson Junk Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)
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Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-154)
Expect swings, misses, and plenty of K’s on Monday night.
