MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay: Dodgers vs Brewers +920 – The Dodgers head to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in Game 1 of the NLCS
Game 1 of the National League Championship Series sets the stage for a heavyweight clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Dodgers enter as −160 favorites, backed by one of the deepest lineups in baseball and an offense that continues to thrive under pressure. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s pitching depth and power bats make them a dangerous underdog capable of swinging momentum in a single inning, not to mention, they enter with the best record in baseball. Not your typical underdog at all.
For bettors, this matchup offers plenty of angles, but one of the most appealing is the correlation between Freddie Freeman’s power production and a Dodgers victory. Freeman has been one of MLB’s most consistent postseason performers, and when he leaves the yard, Los Angeles tends to win.
That narrative drives our two-leg Same Game Parlay for tonight: Freddie Freeman to hit a home run, paired with the Dodgers moneyline (−160). Backed by data, this parlay blends power potential with win probability for a smart, high-upside postseason wager.
Let’s get into it!
Same Game Parlay Brewers vs. Dodgers — NLCS Game 1
Leg 1 — Freddie Freeman to hit a Home Run +525
-
Freeman’s road power has been a real edge this season, and he profiles well against both four-seamers and breaking balls in hitters’ counts. HR props are volatile by nature, but Freeman’s barrel rate and hard-hit consistency make him one of the few stars who can justify a single-game HR leg.
- Freeman is just 1-4 off of Brewers starter Andy Ashby, who is most likely just the opener and may not make it twice through the Dodgers lineup. His last time out, Asby was replaced by young fireballer Jacob Misiorowski, whom Freeman is 0-3 against. But this is the NLCS, and the stakes are higher. We’re going to take the risk on Freeman losing one off of one of the Brewers’ bullpen arms.
Leg 2 — Dodgers Moneyline −160
-
Pairing the Dodgers to win with a Freeman HR is a classic positive-correlation setup: if Freeman leaves the yard, LA’s win probability meaningfully jumps, especially in a lower-total postseason environment where one swing can decide it.
- Combine the Freeman correlation with Blake Snell taking the ball in game one for the Dodgers, and we have a pairing we’re excited to roll the dice with in game 1. Freeman HR + Dodgers ML is a tight narrative: your best bat provides the high-leverage blow; the superior bullpen and run prevention carry it home. Books usually compress SGP payouts a bit, but this combo still lands in a big way if it hits.
Freddie Freeman had never pimped a home run, but he’d also never hit a walk-off grand slam in the World Series…
⚾️📺 #MLBNPresents: Driven: The Freddie Freeman Story. Debuts NEXT on MLB Network pic.twitter.com/q2yc3OMIUr
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 17, 2025
| Leg | Pick | Line / Notes* |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freddie Freeman — To Hit a Home Run | +525 |
| 2 | Dodgers Moneyline | −160 |
| Estimated Combined SGP Odds | +920 | |
| *Odds as of 10/13/25 | Always confirm live lines and SGP pricing before placing bets. SGP math varies by sportsbook and boosts. | ||