MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay: Padres vs. Cubs – This Padres vs. Cubs same game parlay is a long shot with a massive payday
The NL Wild Card opens at Wrigley Field on Tuesday (3:08 p.m. ET, ABC) with Shota Imanaga (9–8, 3.73) hosting Nick Pivetta (13–5, 2.87). Books favor the Cubs at −118, the Padres are listed at −103, with a total of 7 (O at −116/U at −105), classic playoff pricing for a tight opener.
The Cubbies have been excellent at home in 2025, finishing 50–31 at home (46–24 as home favorites) vs. San Diego’s 38–43 road record (23–29 as road dogs). Pivetta hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he has been at Petco Park in 2025, and it’s the long ball that has plagued him on the road.
Our MLB same-game parlay leans into both edges: Cubs moneyline + a long ball from a Cubbie who has hit Pivetta hard in his career.
Cubs vs. Padres is locked in as the first NL Wild Card matchup! pic.twitter.com/43tNc7CIeB
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 25, 2025
MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay: Padres vs. Cubs
Leg 1 — Cubs Moneyline (−118)
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Venue & splits: Cubs 50–31 at home this season; Padres 38–43 on the road and 24–26 vs .540+ teams. In a coin-flip total (7) with Chicago’s home profile, the small favorite holds value.
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Pitching angle: This is a fade of Pivetta on the road moment; his earlier three-inning, 6 H/3 R start at Wrigley (Apr. 5) displays his struggles away from Petco. Pivetta has given up over a full run more per outing on the road, and 13 of his 22 home runs surrendered have been on the road.
Leg 2 — Dansby Swanson to Hit a Home Run (+760)
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Matchup Stats: Swanson has 2 HR in 34 AB vs. Pivetta. I love this value pick at +760, a number that meaningfully boosts this parlay for a massive payday.
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Why it correlates: A Swanson long ball directly improves Chicago’s win probability in a low-total game; pairing a team result with a HR from a middle-order bat is a classic correlated MLB same game parlay in October.
Pretty good season for Dansby Swanson.
Dansby’s first 20/20 season of his career!
He most likely has a gold glove waiting for him as well. pic.twitter.com/yHmXXKyhm3
— BuschBangs (@BuschBangs) September 27, 2025
Estimated SGP payout
Using the listed prices (−118 and +760), the approximate combined price falls around the +1600 range (note that books may be priced differently by SGPs).
| Leg | Pick | Line / Odds* |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cubs Moneyline | −118 |
| 2 | Dansby Swanson — Home Run | +760 |
| Estimated Combined SGP Odds | +1600 | |
| *Odds and props subject to change | SGP pricing varies by book. Confirm live numbers before betting. | ||
There is no denying that this is a long-shot play, but it’s not entirely outrageous. Pivetta hasn’t been as dominant on the road, and he has been subject to some blow-up innings. In October, runs come in big moments and in big swings, and the long ball has been a problem spot for Pivetta, especially on the road in 2025.
This play has a shot, and I’m fired up to watch this October battle with a +1600 on the line. Best of luck!
