Beginning with the Round of 16 and continuing through the Round of 8, four drivers will be eliminated from championship contention in each of the first three NASCAR Cup Series playoff rounds.
So, who will be the first four to go, failing to reach the Round of 12?
Here are the four drivers most likely not to advance beyond the Round of 16. A round that will be contested at three tracks: Darlington Raceway, World Wide Technology Raceway and Bristol Motor Speedway.
Round Of 16 Eliminated Driver No. 1: Shane van Gisbergen
This is an easy one to handicap. Despite being seeded sixth out of 16 playoff drivers and being tied with Denny Hamlin for most wins in 2025, Shane van Gisbergen almost certainly won’t survive the Round of 16.
The reason? Well, it couldn’t be more obvious. None of the three tracks in the Round of 16 is a road course. Given how badly van Gisbergen — a road racing extraordinaire from his time in the Australian Supercars series — struggles on ovals, it would take a mini miracle for the Cup Series rookie to reach the Round of 12.
Is it impossible? Well, no. Of course not. But a lot would have to go van Gisbergen’s way for the New Zealander and his Trackhouse Racing team to survive the opening round of the playoffs.
Round Of 16 Eliminated Driver No. 2: Josh Berry
Aside from an early-season win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Josh Berry hasn’t actually fared all that well in Year One with the fabled Wood Brothers. Over the 26 races in the regular season, Berry recorded just one other top-five finish. That was a fourth-place finish at Phoenix Raceway the weekend before his mid-March triumph in Sin City.
About the only good news for Berry heading into the playoffs? He just recorded back-to-back top-10s for the first time since his aforementioned consecutive top-fives back near the beginning of the season.
Still, Berry is unlikely to emerge from the Round of 16 unless all the stars align perfectly for him.
Eliminated Driver No. 3: Tyler Reddick
One of just two playoff drivers who are winless this season, Tyler Reddick faces a steep climb trying to get out of the Round of 16.
In fact, Reddick himself sounded less than confident about winning the championship when recently asked about the possibility.
“We’ve got work to do, for sure,” the 23XI Racing driver said after this past weekend’s regular season finale at Daytona. “I think we’re all capable of it. But the year has flown by. And we’re still sitting here with no win, trying to put a race together. We’ve got our work cut out for us.”
Eliminated Driver No. 4: Austin Cindric
Since showcasing considerable speed in his No. 2 Team Penske Ford in the first third of the season, when he captured a playoff-clinching win at Talladega, Austin Cindric has cooled off considerably.
How unimpressive has Cindric been in recent times? Aside from a fifth-place finish at Richmond Raceway two weekends ago, Cindric has finished no better than 12th in the last nine races.
That doesn’t sound like the statistics of a guy who’s poised to make it beyond the Round of 16.
