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The 4 NASCAR Cup Series Drivers Most Likely To Fall In Round Of 12

Jared Turner Written by Sports EditorJared Turner
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Bubba Wallace Chase Elliott

With the Round of 16 in the books and the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12 about to commence, it’s time to consider which quartet of drivers will be the next group cut from championship contention.

Before the Round of 12 gets started at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, let’s break down the four drivers most likely to be eliminated before the Round of 8.

Austin Cindric

Austin Cindric was the last driver to slip into the Round of 12, doing so by clinging to a slim 10-point edge over Alex Bowman at the conclusion of this past weekend’s race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Cindric has been by far the weakest link in the Team Penske stable all year and really hasn’t had noteworthy speed in his No. 2 Ford since fairly early in the 2025 campaign.

Could he catch fire in the Round of 12 and continue his pursuit of an unlikely championship? Well, it’s possible. But Cindric is already starting out this round behind the proverbial eight ball, sitting a point back of bubble man Bubba Wallace.

While Cindric has ample opportunity to make that up and then some, he just hasn’t shown anything on the track in recent times to suggest he’s capable of being among the final eight drivers left standing.

Ross Chastain

Other than winning the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May, has Ross Chastain really done anything of significance this year? In short: Not really.

Somehow, Chastain — who has a reputation as a wrecking ball — has managed to mostly fly under the radar in 2025. Perhaps it’s due to the fact that he just hasn’t performed all that well.

But with Trackhouse Racing teammate Shane van Gisbergen’s Round of 16 elimination, Chastain is the only dog Trackhouse has in the fight for the Round of 12.

Don’t count on him making it out, though. It’s highly unlikely based on everything he’s done — or not done — in 2025.

Bubba Wallace

Despite Bubba Wallace enjoying a career season in NASCAR’s premier series, the Round of 12 will almost certainly be the end of the road for the 23XI Racing driver.

Currently just one point above the cutline, Wallace will have a hard time staying ahead of three-time and reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano, who currently sits two points south of the cutline.

Wallace has also never won multiple races in the same season or excelled at consistency. Together, these failures cast major doubt on his ability to make a deep playoff run.

His only legitimate hope of reaching the Round of 8? Probably winning race No. 2 of 3 in the Round of 12. That event will take place at Kansas Speedway, where in 2022 he notched the second of his now three career Cup Series victories.

But unless lightning strikes twice for Wallace in Kansas City, his outlook for moving on isn’t particularly promising.

Chase Elliott

The good news for Chase Elliott? He’s a former winner at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL and Kansas Speedway. These tracks represent two of the three venues in the Round of 12.

The bad news for NASCAR’s perennial most popular driver? He’s not trending in a very positive direction. After all, he just barely survived the Round of 16.

Who knows, though? Maybe Elliott and his No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team will get it going in the Round of 12. They’re certainly capable of it from a resources and talent perspective.

But aside from a fluky win in Atlanta over the summer, Elliott hasn’t been all that impressive in 2025. In fact, of the three Hendrick Motorsports drivers still in the playoffs, he’s been the least impressive of the trio.

Barring a swift turnaround, the time he has remaining as a title contender will be severely limited.

Jared Turner Written by Sports EditorJared Turner
Jared Turner is a motorsports writer who has covered NASCAR for 20 years. He has interviewed over 20 NASCAR Hall of Famers and around 100 drivers, crew chiefs, and team owners, both past and present. He has also covered the sport for FOX Sports (where he was a two-time recipient of the FOX “X” Award for “Xtraordinary” job performance), NASCAR.com, Sporting News, NASCAR Pole Position Magazine, the SPEED network, and plenty of other online and print-only publications throughout his career. Notably, Jared has penned dozens of articles for NASCAR souvenir programs, including several featured prominently in Daytona 500 keepsakes. A Virginia Press Association award winner and former member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Jared has racked up accolades both for his writing and his academic work. He studied both Communication and Psychology at Virginia Tech, where he was permanently enshrined in Phi Beta Kappa — the nation’s oldest and most prestigious academic honor society. Jared excels at feature writing and opinion writing, much of which stems from his dedication to all levels of racing.
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