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Can Ty Dillon Complete Miracle NASCAR In-Season Challenge Run At Indy?

Jared Turner Written by Sports EditorJared Turner
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Ty Dillon

On paper at least, Sunday’s battle for NASCAR In-Season Challenge glory between Ty Dillon and Ty Gibbs is pretty lopsided.

Gibbs is the heavy favorite, and there’s simply no denying it. But in the four races since the inaugural In-Season Challenge commenced at Atlanta, Dillon — seeded dead last in the 32-driver, NCAA Tournament-style bracket — has defied the odds over and over again.

Does the Kaulig Racing driver have one more miracle run left in him when he goes head-to-head with Gibbs on Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway? Or will Dillon finally falter in this the last of five rounds for the In-Season Challenge, which pays $1 million to win?

Let’s break down Dillon’s chances against Gibbs — driver of the No. 54 Toyota for the powerhouse Joe Gibbs Racing organization owned by his grandfather, the company’s namesake.

Ty Dillon, Statistically Speaking, Has Been No Match For Ty Gibbs This Season

The first 21 races of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season tell a very different story for Ty Dillon and Ty Gibbs.

Although both drivers are winless and neither has set the proverbial woods on fire in terms of consistency or challenging for victories, Gibbs has a significant advantage.

How significant? Well, he boasts six top-10s, including four top-fives, to Dillon’s one top-10 and no top-fives.

Gibbs is 16th in points, with an average finish of 17th, while Dillon ranks 30th in the standings with an average finishing position of 22.3.

Even over the first four races of the In-Season Challenge, where both drivers have eliminated their opponent each time out, Dillon’s finishes pale in comparison to those of Gibbs.

While Gibbs has finished 14th, second, seventh and fifth for an average result of 7.0, Dillon has come home eighth, 20th, 17th and 20th for an average result of 16.25.

Remarkably, though, Gibbs’ hopes of winning the In-Season Challenge are no more alive than Dillon’s heading to Indianapolis for the decisive round.

Their History At Indy Oval Levels The Playing Field A Bit Between Ty Gibbs And Ty Dillon

Thankfully, for Ty Dillon, there are few tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule where he’s seemingly better prepared to battle Ty Gibbs than Indianapolis.

For starters, Dillon has far more experience racing on the facility’s fabled 2.5-mile oval — not only in the NASCAR Cup Series but also in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

Between Cup and Xfinity, Dillon has suited up 11 times at the Indy oval. Gibbs has done so only once.

In his lone appearance at the Indy oval, which came last year in the Cup Series race, Gibbs finished 23rd. Dillon has finished no better than 13th and no worse than 21st in five Indy appearances on the Cup Series side, for an average finish of 17.2.

In the Xfinity Series, Dillon’s outcomes at Indy are more impressive. He’s recorded five top-10s, including his lone Xfinity Series win, in six starts at The Brickyard.

Gibbs, the 2022 Xfinity Series champion, owns one win in three Xfinity outings on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course where NASCAR no longer competes. But the road course is a completely different animal than the oval configuration he’ll see on Sunday.

Does Racing At Indianapolis Give Ty Dillon A Real Fighting Chance Against Ty Gibbs?

It’s possible to make a case that what Ty Dillon accomplished at Indianapolis during his Xfinity Series days, coupled with his vast experience on the Indy oval compared to Ty Gibbs, gives him a legitimate shot to take down Gibbs on Sunday. And that goes for even if the sixth-seeded Gibbs doesn’t run into major trouble as Dillon’s In-Season Challenge foes did in the first two rounds.

Sure, based on sheer performance numbers this year, Dillon triumphing over Gibbs head-to-head looks highly doubtful. But betting against Dillon in this tournament-style format has proven, at least so far, to be not so wise.

Win or lose, though, Dillon is just thankful for the opportunity to race for a million dollars. He’s also thankful for the success he’s enjoyed over the last few weeks. That success has shined a positive light on both his witty personality and the efforts of his underdog No. 10 Kaulig Racing team.

“I don’t take it for granted,” Dillon said. “I have been out of this sport and got good perspective and have so much gratitude just to get to race these cars. When things are coming together in a season like this, it’s not everything we want, it hasn’t been everything, but we are having fun. And when you can leave the racetrack smiling, you are already winning.”

Jared Turner Written by Sports EditorJared Turner
Jared Turner is a motorsports writer who has covered NASCAR for 20 years. He has interviewed over 20 NASCAR Hall of Famers and around 100 drivers, crew chiefs, and team owners, both past and present. He has also covered the sport for FOX Sports (where he was a two-time recipient of the FOX “X” Award for “Xtraordinary” job performance), NASCAR.com, Sporting News, NASCAR Pole Position Magazine, the SPEED network, and plenty of other online and print-only publications throughout his career. Notably, Jared has penned dozens of articles for NASCAR souvenir programs, including several featured prominently in Daytona 500 keepsakes. A Virginia Press Association award winner and former member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Jared has racked up accolades both for his writing and his academic work. He studied both Communication and Psychology at Virginia Tech, where he was permanently enshrined in Phi Beta Kappa — the nation’s oldest and most prestigious academic honor society. Jared excels at feature writing and opinion writing, much of which stems from his dedication to all levels of racing.
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