NBA Awards Ballot: Picking The MVP, DPOY And More From The First 4 Months

In the time since our previous award ballot, plenty changed across the NBA landscape. With the All-Star Break in the rearview mirror, we have a much larger sample for which to evaluate players and decide award picks. A few key injuries complicated some awards and will lead to close races and tight debates.

As always, these are my picks if I had a vote for these awards, not a prediction on what I think will happen.

Most Valuable Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like a consummate MVP candidate. In the nearly two and a half months since our last award picks, he’s leapfrogged Nikola Jokic to claim the top spot. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in scoring per game (32.3 points) on an elite 64.1 percent true shooting clip (92nd percentile). 

He also leads the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (plus-9.1) and only trails Jokic in Offensive EPM (plus-7.0). If Gilgeous-Alexander’s tear continues, he’ll join Joel Embiid (2024), Jokic (2022), James Harden (2019), Stephen Curry (2016) and LeBron James (2009) as the only players since 2000 with EPM seasons above plus-9.0.

Two-way play helps bolster the foundation of his MVP case. He ranks 12th in the NBA in Defensive EPM (plus-2.1) and fifth among high-minute players (above 30 per game). Impact metrics might slightly overstate his defensive goodness, but Gilgeous-Alexander adds value as a weak-side helper and chaos creator for a historic defensive unit.

On-off numbers support Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP case, as the Thunder improve by 14.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, their net rating soaring to plus-17.9. His impact on Oklahoma City’s fifth-ranked offense is immense, as the unit plummets by nearly 15 points per 100 possessions when Gilgeous-Alexander sits.

If you value winning, he covers that as well. His Thunder sit atop the Western Conference by a healthy seven-win margin over the second-place Denver Nuggets. Oklahoma City’s plus-14.1 net rating is by far the best in the NBA and one of the highest in league history. 

Jokic still makes a reasonable case, as his offense might even eclipse Gilgeous-Alexander’s. But Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine of a historically great regular season team, dominating as a creator, playmaker and defender. He deserves his first MVP trophy for his performance this season.

Honorable Mentions: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Defensive Player Of The Year: Evan Mobley

Victor Wembanamya will have to wait for his first Defensive Player of the Year trophy, as he won’t meet the 65-game minimum anymore. That widens the field quite a bit because there isn’t a clear player taking second place right now. Evan Mobley is one of the anchors playing at a DPOY-level this season, often carrying a top-10 Cleveland Cavaliers defense.

Cleveland’s defense improves by 7.7 points per 100 possessions with Mobley on the floor. Given his wide-ranging skillset, his presence is critical to its interior and perimeter defense. Among qualified players, Mobley ranks seventh in Defensive EPM (plus-2.0) and 10th in block rate (4.7 percent). He contests at the rim the fifth-most often of the group (11.8 times per 100 possessions) and opponents shoot 10.2 percent below their average there when Mobley lurks in the vicinity.

Stronger post players can move Mobley off of his spot, but it’s a minor weakness at this point for him. His big-space roaming erases large areas of the court, forcing defenses to move away from him or take difficult shots over him. Versatility and rim protection are his fortes and he defends in space as well as any center in the NBA. 

Mobley often plays alongside Jarrett Allen, another high-level big defender, but he’s also played as the lone big for long stretches of the season. When Allen and Mobley share the floor, the Cavs allow 110.3 points per 100 possessions. When Mobley plays without Allen, their defense improves by almost a point (and drops off by nearly five points with Allen on and Mobley off).

Jaren Jackson Jr. deserves a mention here, but his defensive supporting cast is a bit stronger in Memphis. The Grizzlies don’t ask as much of Jackson Jr. as Cleveland does of Mobley, given Memphis’ superior frontcourt and wing defenders. Ivica Zubac anchors an elite Los Angeles Clippers defense, but he’s a tick below the top few contenders regarding individual impact. Amen Thompson and Jalen Williams are defending as well as non-bigs can, both of them acting as primary paint protectors for their defenses at times.

But none of the above reach the exemplary impact Evan Mobley displays. He’s the most versatile contender, shutting off the rim, thriving as a point-of-attack defender and switching out onto the perimeter. Mobley deserves his first DPOY trophy of what will be a stellar defensive career. 

Honorable Mentions: Jaren Jackson Jr., Ivica Zubac

Rookie Of The Year: Stephon Castle

The Rookie of the Year race might be the closest of any award this season. An uninspiring rookie class and an injury to then-frontrunner Jared McCain in December makes for a fascinating race. Only two rookies post an EPM above zero (Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells), just seven play above 25 minutes per game and four rookies score over 10 points per game.

Castle owns the top spot at the moment for his recent improved scoring stretch. A Spurs team which lost Victor Wembanyama for the season will rely even more on Castle, giving him the chance to take control of the ROTY race. Still, plenty of rookies will have a chance to enter the mix with a strong final few months.

For more on Castle and this murky rookie class, read our recent rookie ladder here.

Honorable Mentions: Jaylen Wells, Zach Edey, Alex Sarr, Kel’el Ware

Most Improved Player: Evan Mobley

It’s an Evan Mobley double-up! Mobley officially made his first All-Star Game, boosting his case for the MIP crown. We already discussed his excellent defense, but he deserves this award for his offensive growth. In year four, he’s evolved into a genuine offensive creator, logging career-highs in points per game (18.5), true shooting (65.4 percent) and 3-point percentage (37.9 percent).

Mobley ranks ninth in EPM (plus-4.5), way up from 75th (plus-1.5) last season. Oftentimes, the jump from good to elite matters more (and is more challenging) than the leap from solid to good or even great and that’s the case with Mobley. He’s bludgeoning mismatches, shooting with more confidence and creating off of the bounce more regularly this season.

More than any of the other candidates, Mobley’s growth changes the way he operates on the basketball court. He likely won’t win the award, as Cade Cunningham, Norman Powell and Tyler Herro all have massive leads in terms of betting odds. But Mobley’s transformation vaulted this Cleveland team into title contenders and that jump earns him recognition here.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Herro, Cade Cunningham, Norman Powell 

Sixth Man Of The Year: Payton Pritchard

Pritchard is the first repeat winner from our previous award picks in December. Not much has changed with Pritchard. He’s still excelling as a complementary creator for Boston, even if his gaudy efficiency numbers dipped some. He averages a career-high 14.1 points per game on 64.1 percent true shooting. He’s moved up to 18th in EPM (plus-3.4), despite the slight offensive downtick.

He’s notching career-high marks on 3-pointers (41.4 percent), midrange shots (51.6 percent) and shots at the hoop (72.1 percent). Pritchard has become a dynamic, versatile scorer, operating as an off-ball shooter, secondary driver and pick-and-roll handler for an elite Boston Celtics offense. Only Pritchard, Anthony Edwards and Malik Beasley shoot above 40 percent on over 10 3-point attempts per 75 possessions this season.

Guards who combine court-wide scoring efficiency and decision-making chops (8.5 percent turnover rate, 3.5 assist-to-turnover ratio) carry tons of offensive value. Pritchard isn’t a slouch on the defensive end, either. No reserve comes close to his impact to winning.

Honorable Mentions: De’Andre Hunter, Naz Reid, Santi Aldama

Coach Of The Year: Kenny Atkinson

Atkinson remains the rightful favorite for Coach of the Year for elevating the Cavs to the NBA’s elite. Cleveland still sports the NBA’s best record (46-10) and has jumped to the second-highest net rating (plus-11.8), only trailing a dominant Oklahoma City team.

He’s flipped Cleveland’s identity on its head, building success around an elite, modern offense. Atkinson maximized Cleveland’s core like no other coach previously has, smoothing out the Mobley-Allen pairing and boosting their spacing and movement.

Darius Garland and Mobley are both playing the best ball of their careers and will contend for an All-NBA team. He’s unlocked Mobley’s offensive potential, turning him into a genuine creator. We’ll watch how Atkinson fully incorporates deadline acquisition De’Andre Hunter into the mix, adding another big wing scorer with which to play. 

Mark Daigneault will also be a strong candidate to win his second straight COTY trophy, given Oklahoma City’s historic season. But Atkinson doesn’t have a player of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s caliber, even with Cleveland’s elite roster overall. No other coach tangibly changed the trajectory of their squad like Atkinson has.  

Honorable Mentions: Mark Daigneault, Taylor Jenkins

All stats are accurate prior to games played on Feb. 23.