Which Western Conference Team Is Best Positioned To Grab The Final Play-In Tournament Spot?

As the concluding month of the NBA’s regular season approaches, the race for the final Play-In Tournament spot out West is a mess.

The 10th-seeded Dallas Mavericks (32-31) have endured injury after injury and now find themselves down Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively III and Daniel Gafford, among others. The 11th-seeded Phoenix Suns (29-33) have been disjointed much of the year and are 4-11 over their past 15 games. Winners in 15 of their past 22 bouts, the 12th-seeded Portland Trail Blazers (28-35) seem to be playing the best basketball of the bunch here, but they’re still four games back of Dallas with 19 games to play and own the league’s sixth-hardest remaining schedule.

Despite all of this, someone will emerge and secure the No. 10 seed by mid-April to extend their season. So, the Sportscasting NBA crew came together and made a pitch for each of these three teams. Let’s get to it.

Dallas Mavericks

I’ve said enough mean things about the Dallas Mavericks over the last month, so we’re sticking to the prompt today. Do they have enough juice to push for the Western Conference’s final Play-In Tournament spot? With a 2.5-game lead over the Phoenix Suns, Dallas has a solid grasp on the 10 seed at the moment, but Kyrie Irving’s season-ending injury will muddy its chances. Without Irving, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively III and Daniel Gafford, Dallas’ path to retaining its playoff position will be arduous.

The Mavericks have posted a minus-6.5 net rating in lineups without Irving, Davis (or Luka Doncic) this season. Without their stars, they simply don’t have the creation, scoring or playmaking to hold up. Most teams don’t, and the Mavs are no exception. Relying on Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall to keep their offense afloat will be dubious.

Yet the Mavs are still in the Play-In driver’s seat and control their destiny there. If they can claw their way through the final 19 games of the season with enough wins and good fortune, they’ll hope Anthony Davis can return for the postseason. But there’s no guarantee they make it there relying on aging former stars and role players to sustain their position. –Ben Pfeifer

Phoenix Suns

It’s not at all where they expected to be, but the Phoenix Suns are in the battle of their lives to make postseason, let alone the playoffs. The most expensive payroll in the NBA has not played like it, yet they still find themselves in position to nab a Play-IN Tournament berth and save their season.

They face an uphill battle. The Suns are trending downwards; four games below .500 at 29-33 and 3-7 in their last 10 games, which includes two losses to the lowly Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans. To make matters worse, they have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA, featuring two games against the Boston Celtics, as well as contests against the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers over their final 20 outings.

With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal leading the way, the Suns can be a potent offense on most nights. They’re 10th in offensive efficiency, and the combined shotmaking of their three-headed snake is enough to keep them involved in most games.

I can’t say the same for their defense. Phoenix is 27th on that end, allowing 116.3 points per 100 possessions. Only the Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz are worse defensively. A lackluster group on the perimeter puts them in constant rotation and they’re missing the rim protection necessary to insulate themselves inside.

If the Suns survive this gauntlet of a schedule and jump to 10th in the West (currently 11th), it’ll be because they found a way to avoid being downright terrible defensively. The bar is on the floor at this point.

Still, as the Dallas Mavericks navigate their fair share of injuries and misery, Phoenix can make the most of the opportunity in front of it and potentially climb back into the postseason. –Es Baraheni

Portland Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers have something neither the Phoenix Suns nor Dallas Mavericks have on their side: momentum.

After starting the season 9-2, the Suns have stumbled to a 20-31 record in their last 51 games. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have experienced arguably the most hellacious two months of front office mismanagement and poor injury luck in the history of the sport.

As for the Trail Blazers, they are in the midst of potentially the greatest midseason turnaround of the last 40 years. Through 41 games, the Blazers were 13-28 with a minus-9.1 net rating (29th in the NBA, per NBA.com). Since then (22 games), they’re 15-7 with a plus-7.1 net rating (sixth overall) and stand 28-35 overall for 12th in the West, four games back of the injury plagued Mavericks.

What I really like about this Blazers team is their play hasn’t been powered by unsustainable shooting — even if their 36.2 percent clip beyond the arc during this 15-7 run is an improvement from their prior 33.9 percent mark. Instead, they’ve finally made good on all the amazing defensive personnel of their young roster. Amid this stretch, the Blazers are second in defensive rating (109.3 points allowed per 100 possessions), behind only the surprisingly stout Los Angeles Lakers.

As we saw last season with the Orlando Magic, having a young and hungry defense can carry a team pretty far in the regular season. I personally think this unit is tenacious enough to take the Blazers all the way to the Play-In Tournament. –Mat Issa