Real or Not? Analzying The NBA’s Late-Season Breakouts In 2025

In these doldrums of the season, affectionately dubbed by some as “Mickey Mouse March,” we often see fleeting player breakouts. Our team of NBA experts gave their thoughts on which of these late season trends will sustain and which will not.

Josh Giddey

JOSH GIDDEY HALF-COURT GAME WINNER pic.twitter.com/0O3T3L70Oe

— Hoops (@HoopMixOnly) March 28, 2025

A year ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder benched Josh Giddey in crucial playoff games before shipping him off to Chicago over the summer in exchange for Alex Caruso. He looked like the same player for most of this season, scoring inefficiently and struggling on defense. 

Late in the season, however, Giddey has played the best ball of his career, averaging 19.9 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists on an excellent 61.5 percent true shooting clip since the beginning of February

His growth has helped the Bulls, in true Bulls fashion, push for a low playoff spot. How much of his improvement is real, though? His hot 3-point shooting — Giddey has made 46 percent of his 4.5 3-point attempts per game over this stretch — probably won’t sustain to this extent. His 3-point frequency on the season (32 percent) is a career-best, indicating some level of real shooting progress.

Though his shooting will probably regress, Giddey has made real strides as a slasher. He’s nearly doubled his free-throw rate from last season, up to 27.1 percent. Added strength helps him carve out space on drives more easily than he could before. More transition and spot-up chances help him create downhill while his shooting gravity further facilitates that plan.

Once again, we’ll have the chance to see Josh Giddey in the playoffs (or, at least the postseason). Teams will try to ignore him on the perimeter as the Dallas Mavericks did last year. If he can burn those defensive intentions and thrive as a driver and a playmaker, it’ll be easier to buy his late-season growth. 

Has he shown enough to warrant a massive extension this summer in restricted free agency? I’d still hesitate to sign that check, but he’s likely played well to earn a big payday from the Bulls. – Ben Pfeifer

Naji Marshall

Want to hear a mind-blowing stat? Here’s the top seven for points in the paint per game during March (minimum 10 games played).

The list goes like this: a two-time MVP (Giannis Antetokounmpo), a three-time MVP (Nikola Jokic), a player widely recognized as the most underrated in basketball (Ivica Zubac), an All-Star (Cade Cunningham), another All-Star (Alperen Sengun), the betting favorite to win MVP this year and last season’s runner-up (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), and Naji Marshall. Hmmm?!

Averaging 19.8 points (59.4 percent true shooting), 7.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.4 steals in March. Marshall used the Dallas Mavericks’ downtrodden and depleted state to put up the best numbers of his career. But was this a classic case of late season mayhem or is it a true display of tangible growth?

What’s been powering Marshall’s run is his finishing around the rim and touch in the short midrange. He’s shooting 10 percent better around the rim (67.6 percent) than he did last year (57.6 percent) and 10.6 percent better from the midrange (55.5 percent) than he did in 2023-24 (44.9 percent). 

Unless he took an unexpected leap during his age-27 season, this is probably the result of a hot-shooting stretch. Yes, those can last an entire season, and yes, they can happen with shots that aren’t 3-pointers (although, they are far less common).

We’re already starting to see Marshall regress to the mean. Over his last two games, the Mavericks have gotten their guys back as they try to make a late season push, reintegrating Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. In that span, Marshall has come down to Earth, averaging seven points on 50.4 percent true shooting. 

Marshall is still a good NBA player, one who could contribute to most playoff rotations. He just isn’t ascending into stardom any time soon, despite an excellent March.  – Mat Issa

OG Anunoby

OG Anunoby 24-25 defense supercut pic.twitter.com/T2dvosxrLq

— Teg🚨 (@IQfor3) April 3, 2025

With Jalen Brunson sidelined for a healthy chunk of March because of an ankle injury, there was ample opportunity for someone on the New York Knicks to swoop in and take advantage of the extra touches. 

OG Anunoby has done just that. In 14 games without Brunson, he’s averaging 23 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 steals while shooting 38.8 percent from three and taking 16.8 shots a night — far above his career average of 10 shots per game. The Knicks stayed afloat during that stretch, going 8-6 as Anunoby assumed an uptick in responsibility offensively. 

During that stretch, he’s shown an ability to create shots off the bounce, drive to the basket relentlessly and use his physicality as a weapon for generating separation. 

Is it real? Is this a genuine step for Anunoby to becoming a more legitimate offensive creator?

In one sense, it is. Every year of his career, Anunoby has improved his efficiency as a driver, displaying a more refined handle and ability to finish in traffic. That growth is tangible and should only continue to trend upward. The pull-up shooting and shot creation have their ebbs and flows, however. At best, they’re streaky parts of his game and will continue to be throughout his career. 

If anything, this run from Anunoby should make clear to the Knicks he is capable of handling more usage in doses and there’s a way to diversify their offense by incorporating him and Mikal Bridges more as ball-handlers. Most importantly, this recent surge shows Anunoby is peaking at just the right time heading into the postseason. – Esfandiar Baraheni