Florida State opens a pivotal Year 7 under head coach Mike Norvell on Saturday night, hosting New Mexico State at Doak Campbell Stadium in a game the Seminoles will be heavily expected to win.
Kickoff is set for prime time as Norvell, coming off back-to-back losing seasons and squarely on the hot seat, unveils a retooled offense built around a new starting quarterback and a rebuilt backfield.
That quarterback is Ashton Daniels, a transfer who started 22 games at Stanford before a brief stop at Auburn, arriving with 4,783 career passing yards and 24 touchdowns to his name.
He’s joined by Texas transfer running back Quintrevion “Tre” Wisner, who rushed for over 1,600 yards across his final two seasons with the Longhorns and gives Florida State a proven complement to returning backs Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton Jr.
New Mexico State, by contrast, is stepping up in competition after finishing 90th nationally in run defense a year ago, a number that could get tested early and often against a Seminoles offense that already ranked 11th in the country on the ground last season.
New Mexico State vs Florida State Predictions From Our Supercomputer
Our AI-driven college football supercomputer has weighed the massive talent and experience gap between these two programs, along with Florida State’s new-look backfield and passing attack, to arrive at its verdict for this Week 0 mismatch.
Here are the three best bets it landed on for New Mexico State vs Florida State.
- Florida State -31.5
- Quintrevion Wisner 2+ Touchdowns
- Ashton Daniels 2+ Passing Touchdowns
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New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction 1: Florida State -31.5
- Florida State -31.5 (-105)
This is about as lopsided as a Week 0 pairing gets.
Florida State ran for the 11th-most yards in the country a year ago even before adding Wisner to a backfield that already includes Kromah and Singleton, and New Mexico State surrendered 165 rushing yards per game last season, a mark that ranked 90th nationally.
Norvell is also back calling plays himself after handing that duty off a year ago, and a desperate coach on the hot seat has every reason to keep his foot on the gas deep into the second half.
New Mexico State’s best hope is limiting the margin, not competing for the win, and a number north of 30 still looks beatable for the home side.
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New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction 2: Quintrevion Wisner 2+ Touchdowns
- Quintrevion Wisner 2+ Touchdowns (+240)
Wisner arrives from Texas as arguably the most proven back on Florida State’s roster, having topped 1,600 rushing yards across his final two seasons with the Longhorns, and head coach Mike Norvell confirmed this week that the senior is fully available after returning to practice from a minor absence.
Against a New Mexico State run defense that ranked 90th nationally a season ago, Wisner projects to see a heavy workload in a game Florida State should control from the opening drive.
With Kromah and Singleton also in the mix, touches will be split to a degree, but a blowout of this scale should still produce plenty of red-zone chances for the newcomer to find paydirt more than once.
Fans tracking Florida State’s outside shot at a run to Atlanta can also check the latest ACC Championship odds for where the Seminoles stand entering the season.
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New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction 3: Ashton Daniels 2+ Passing Touchdowns
- Ashton Daniels 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-240)
Daniels steps into a Florida State offense loaded with proven pass-catchers, including Duce Robinson, and gets to make his Seminoles debut against a New Mexico State defense that struggled to generate a pass rush a year ago.
A former Stanford starter with 4,783 career passing yards and 24 touchdowns to his name, Daniels should have all the time he needs in the pocket behind an offensive line that returns a combined 106 starts of experience.
With Florida State expected to build an early lead and Norvell calling plays himself for the first time since ceding those duties last season, look for multiple scoring throws well before the outcome is out of doubt.
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