Is There Any Reason To Worry About The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Defense?

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s suffocating, historic defense has dominated headlines for much of the NBA season. Oklahoma City is the NBA’s best team, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and one of the most potent defenses in league history. Offenses sputter when facing the Thunder, unable to dribble and pass without coughing the ball up and forcing ill-advised shots.

Oklahoma City’s defense has quietly slipped as the season progressed, though. Before Feb. 1, the Thunder mustered an all-time defense (105.1 defensive rating). Since the beginning of February, their defense ranks ninth (113.2 points per 100 possessions) and 21st over the last two weeks (they’re 6-1 over that stretch).

We can attribute some of this to fatigue — the NBA season is long and arduous, especially for teams which play like Oklahoma City. Two of their better defenders, Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort, aren’t defending at their best. Gilgeous-Alexander, who is scoring like an all-time great, isn’t draining as much energy as a weak-side helper or on-ball stopper as he once did.

Dort’s moving Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus currently sits at minus-1.0, far from his peak earlier this season (plus-1.7) in mid-January. The film reflects this trend. Lineups with fewer perimeter defenders mean more work for Dort (and Gilgeous-Alexander), leading to lapses off of the ball. 

Dort/Shai poor off-ball defense pic.twitter.com/nDU7CwRetc

— bjpfclips (@bjpfclips) March 5, 2025

These defenders, especially Dort, deserve some benefit and grace. Dort locks down opposing initiators come playoff time and he should bounce back to top form as he focuses more on that end. The same should ring true for Gilgeous-Alexander, who will have to balance high-usage offense with defensive production. 

Oklahoma City’s stretch of historic offensive suffocation came without their two star big men, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, playing together. The two bigs finally shared the floor this season, and the results have been mixed to this point. Head coach Mark Daigneault has provided no indication he’s going to stop playing these two together for important stretches, continuing to tinker and experiment.

Asked Daigneault how relevant opposing personnel is when playing the double-big lineup:

“Irrelevant right now, tbh with you. Maybe in the second half of games. … those two guys are two of our best players. Part of my job is to get our best players on court. We’re in the early… https://t.co/jjCQP9izYB pic.twitter.com/owZR5xTlCh

— Joel Lorenzi (@jxlorenzi) February 27, 2025

Hartenstein and Holmgren’s 114 minutes playing in tandem have produced a putrid 120.5 defensive rating, which would rank as the NBA’s worst defense. Those lineups still output positive net results due to scorching offense (128.6 offensive rating), but their defensive struggles are somewhat surprising.

Opposing offenses score at a nearly 60 percent true shooting clip and 40 percent from deep against their double-big lineups. During these minutes, Oklahoma City allows the sixth-most threes in the league (40.5 percent frequency) and opponents shoot a league-low 34.3 percent against them. Some regression throughout the season feels natural, but the double-big lineup exacerbates these issues.

Oklahoma City flies around on the defensive end, sprinting out at credible shooters and strategically ignoring weak shooters, especially in the corners. Holmgren and Hartenstein are both mobile bigs, but not suited to cover ground like the Thunder’s guards and wings. When Holmgren is at the four, opponents take 44.2 percent of their shots from deep and make an absurd 41.2 percent of them, reflecting some of his troubles defending on the outside.

OKC’s lineups with Chet Holmgren at the four this season — 118.3 defensive rating (25th percentile), 100 halfcourt defensive rating (28th percentile). Some growing pains with him in a new role make sense: pic.twitter.com/rMGPyr9Nv6

— Sportscasting NBA (@SportcastingNBA) March 5, 2025

Holmgren is adjusting to an entirely new defensive role playing the four, learning when to help inside and when to contest outside. He’s playing 26 percent of his minutes this season at the four, compared to 4 percent last season. His minutes at the four produce a 12.3 percent turnover rate, much lower than Oklahoma City’s average.

These lineups with Hartenstein and Holmgren fully shut off the basket, however, which could bear fruit as he adjusts to playing on the perimeter. Opposing offenses attempt fewer than 20 percent of their shots at the hoop with Holmgren at the four while Hartenstein anchors the paint at center. 

There’s no definitive answer for Oklahoma City’s defensive slippage at this stage of the season. But the tinkering and growing pains come with the postseason in mind. As Daigneault knows, it’s imperative for Oklahoma City to learn as much as it can about this roster. Whether lineup changes, fatigue or general variance, the Thunder’s current defensive performance matters less than what comes in May and June.

Their depth will allow for significant lineup flexibility and ironing out the double-big group will pay long-term dividends. Some playoff opponents might struggle immensely to challenge their twin towers; it could flummox the Denver Nuggets’ paint-focused approach or the Memphis Grizzlies’ interior scoring prowess. If they meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals, they can deploy Hartenstein and Holmgren to counter Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who both caused major issues when a Holmgren-less Thunder team lost to Cleveland in mid-January. 

Some potential opponents who lean on perimeter play and smaller lineups, like the Los Angeles Lakers, could give the double-big lineups trouble defensively, given their ability to surrender easy threes. The Thunder can simply deviate from that lineup, relying on single- or no-big lineups, which have been so unbreakable defensively. 

Oklahoma City’s defensive woes come with a critical tradeoff: an elite, equally dominant offense. While the Thunder haven’t defended at a historic level over the last month, their offense is the NBA’s best. Since Feb. 1, they lead the league in offensive rating (129.1 points per 100 possessions), topping second-place Cleveland by a comfortable margin. Before Feb 1, Oklahoma City’s offensive rating ranked sixth (118.2).

Extra effort expended on offense, whether that comes from increased usage, more possessions or more motion, understandably bleeds some intensity on the defensive end. It’s hard to force as many turnovers as Oklahoma City does and maintain the same level of offensive energy, so some defensive regression makes sense with the scoring uptick. 

Contrary to popular wisdom, elite offenses, led by superstars like Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum and Stephen Curry, drive championship-level winning. Oklahoma City has too much defensive talent at every spot to fail on that end. When the postseason comes around, it’s earned the benefit of the doubt defensively. This lesser version of the Thunder’s defense still ranks comfortably among the top 10 defenses, after all.

Forging an elite offense led by Gilgeous-Alexander, possibly the MVP of the league, will pay off when games slow down and defenses tighten up in the playoffs. Any defensive lapses they face throughout the regular season are worth enduring. 

All stats accurate prior to games played on March 5.