Projecting Sam Darnold’s Next NFL Contract: Vikings QB Could Command $160-$200M Deal

Sam Darnold had a career resurgence in 2024 during his lone season with the Minnesota Vikings. He’ll be one of the top quarterback options on the free agent market this year, and could earn close to $200 million on his next NFL contract.

Darnold’s NFL Career Resurgence In 2024 Earned Him A New Contract

He was turning into a journeyman quarterback in his mid-20s. Sam Darnold signed a one-year contract with the Vikings during the Spring of 2024, and Minnesota became the fourth team that the former 3rd overall pick played for in the span of five years. He hadn’t been a full-time starter in the NFL since 2021, playing the backup role in both Carolina and San Francisco.

Darnold became the Vikings’ best option when rookie QB JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury before the year started, and he made the most of his opportunity. He enjoyed the best campaign of his career, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, both of which ranked top-5 in the league. Minnesota finished 14-3, and missed out on the 1st seed in the NFC due to a regular season finale loss to the division rival Lions.

Vikings QB Sam Darnold is unlikely to be franchise tagged ahead of Tuesday’s 4 pm ET deadline, per league sources.

Minnesota still is interested in working to re-sign Darnold, but it is likely to be without any tag. pic.twitter.com/wJLma2AIzs

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 4, 2025

But it was that game, and the one that followed, that may have knocked some of the sparkle off of his season. With a chance to finish as the top team in the conference, Darnold laid an egg in the game against Detroit. He had arguably his worst game of the year, completing less than 44% of his passes and putting up a season-low 166 yards. The Vikings failed to find the end zone, and lost 31-6. Minnesota would be forced to play on Wild Card Weekend.

In their playoff game the next week, with a chance at redemption, Sam Darnold looked even more lost. Against the Los Angeles Rams, his numbers were slightly better on paper, but he was sacked nine times. He threw a touchdown, but Minnesota was already down by 27 points.

Their season was over, and it was thought that Darnold had cost himself some serious money in his impending free agency.

Darnold Hitting Free Agency At The Right Time

Sam Darnold is hitting free agency at just the right time. This year’s class of available quarterbacks is thin, and he will be considered one of the best options on the market. Other options include Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Marcus Mariota, but no one that has put up the kind of numbers that Darnold did in 2024. At least not recently.

The 2025 NFL draft class is not exactly robust, either. There are only two quarterbacks that are considered to be elite prospects, and are the only ones that are even projected to be first rounders. There are only one or two teams that can count on a rookie QB playing for them during the upcoming season.

But there are plenty of teams that are desperate for quarterbacks this off-season. And because of that, Darnold has the potential to earn somewhere between $160-$200 million on his next deal.

Could Darnold Command $200 Million In NFL Free Agency?

Sam Darnold will likely be looking for some long-term security. His last two contracts have been of the one-year variety, and his performance in 2024 has earned him the right to earn a multi-year contract. The most likely scenario will be teams offering him a 4-year deal. The top free agent quarterback signed a 4-year contract in each of the last two off-seasons, and Darnold’s deal will likely mirror those.

In 2023 Derek Carr signed with the Saints for four years, and at a value of $150 million. Last off-season, Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons, and he earned $180 million on his four-year deal.

Sam Darnold is 27 years old. He is playing at an MVP level. The idea that we should just move on from him regardless because JJ McCarthy is going to be “the future” of the franchise is wild to me.

— Garret “Regular Winter” WATO (@GarretWATO) December 30, 2024

Given the rise in the salary cap, and teams able to spend more money than ever before, it is likely that Darnold will command somewhere close to the same annual value as Carr and Cousins. According to Spotrac, his market value is listed at $40.1 million per season, slightly less than the $45 million that Cousins got.

If a team signs Sam Darnold to a four-year contract at that value, the total would be $160 million. Should he somehow command a five-year variety, he would rank in the top-15 of the contracts with the highest total value in NFL history.

Which Teams Will Have Sam Darnold As An Option?

There will be teams calling Sam Darnold as soon as the free agency period begins. Teams like the Titans, Giants, and Raiders will likely be looking to nab a quarterback in the draft, which will leave plenty of other QB-hungry franchises.

Teams like the Jets and Browns have obvious holes at the position, and are in position to bring a veteran into the fold. Other teams like the Colts could be looking to cut the cord on their current projects, and bring in new blood.

The period in which teams are able to begin negotiations starts on March 10th. Free agency will get under way two days later.