Thanks to finishing with the worst record in the NFL this season, the Las Vegas Raiders will own the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The team has holes to fill at multiple positions across its roster, but perhaps none more important than the starting quarterback.
Raiders Nab Top Pick, Mendoza Heavily Favored To Be Selected #1
And due to that need, Fernando Mendoza is now the heavy favorite to be selected first overall.
Raiders get #1. Fernando Mendoza next?https://t.co/DyQHPqBWIo pic.twitter.com/deDSCbXcOR
— Tankathon.com (@tankathon) January 4, 2026
Mendoza was awarded the Heisman Trophy for being the top player in college football in 2025, and he is still writing his resume. After transferring from Cal, the junior from Miami has led Indiana to a perfect 14-0 record thus far. After knocking off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, the Hoosiers entered the College Football Playoff as the top team in the nation, and are two wins away from a National Championship.
Even if Mendoza and Indiana don’t pull off the perfect season, the young signal caller will likely still hold on to his current betting designation. As of Sunday afternoon and the awarding of the top pick to the Raiders, Fernando Mendoza is listed at -375 to be the top pick in 2026, a number that carries implied odds of 79%.
Las Vegas Could Still Trade Down To Pick Up Assets
It isn’t a foregone conclusion by any stretch. The current class of quarterbacks entering the draft is comparatively underwhelming, and a handful of QB-needy teams are expected to wait a year before addressing the position in 2027.
Given their multitude of offseason needs, the Raiders could choose to go that route, which could mean a trade out of the top spot.
Still, quarterback remains the most important position in the sport, and opportunities to draft a potential franchise player rarely come without significant cost. If Mendoza continues on his current trajectory and shows well throughout the playoff run and pre-draft process, the Raiders may find it difficult to pass on a player who appears capable of resetting the direction of the organization.
For now, Las Vegas holds the leverage, both with the No. 1 pick and with a quarterback prospect whose stock is only rising.
