Raiders Have 80% Chance Of Having #1 Pick In 2026 NFL Draft

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Raiders Have 80% Chance Of Having #1 Pick In 2026 NFL Draft

Sunday’s Week 17 matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants quickly became one of the most consequential games of the 2025 NFL season. But not for playoff positioning.

Raiders In Driver’s Seat For #1 Overall Pick

Both teams entered the game at 2–13, tied for the league’s worst record and locked in a fierce battle for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. In a decisive result, the Giants rolled to a 34–10 victory over the Raiders, handing Las Vegas its tenth straight loss and moving the franchise squarely into position for the top draft slot.

With the Week 18 slate yet to play out, the loss now gives the Raiders roughly an 80% probability of securing the No. 1 pick, according to current draft-order projections and standings math.

It has been a rough season all around for Las Vegas. There was some restored hope before the year started, with a new head coach and quarterback. But the Pete Carroll/Geno Smith experiment has proven to be a massive failure, and the team could be headed for even more sweeping changes this coming offseason.

Having the top overall pick in the upcoming draft would certainly be a solid starting point. The team could elect to choose a franchise changing player with their selection, or they could pivot by making it available to opposing teams via trade.

Would they decide to elect a quarterback if they held on to their asset? The Raiders have been the owners of the number one overall pick just one time in the Super Bowl era, which came in 2007. That pick was used on Jamarcus Russell, who is still considered to be one of the biggest draft busts in any sport, ever.

The Raiders are scheduled to close out the season against the Kansas City Chiefs, who of course have had their own struggles this season. In their previous meeting earlier in the year, Las Vegas was blanked by a score of 31-0. The Giants will be at home to take on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18.