The Indiana Pacers may be on the ropes, but they’re still only two wins away from beating the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2025 NBA Finals. With the possibility of such a gigantic upset looming, we figured it was appropriate to look back at some of the greatest upsets in NBA Finals history, and, at the very end, we’ll see how a Pacers victory would stack up on said list.
Our Process
To determine whether a series victory is an upset, we looked at the net rating of the winning team versus the net rating of the losing team. If the team that lost the series had a higher regular season net rating than the team that won it, the series victory was considered an “upset.”
Now, doing it this way does have some limitations. For instance, if a team is coming off a title run from the season before, it’ll be less likely to go full throttle in the regular season. So, its net rating is negatively affected by this. We had one instance of this to account for during our research.
The other limitation of this approach is NBA.com’s net rating only goes back to 1996-97. So, we only have data from the last 27 NBA champions. Now, without further ado, here are the top five Finals’ upsets of the last quarter century.
No. 5: 2019 Toronto Raptors
Back to our warning from the section above, the original No. 5 on this list was supposed to be the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers, which beat the Philadelphia 76ers 4-1 in the Finals. The Lakers’ net rating was 1.1 points (plus-3.5) lower than that of the Sixers’ (plus-4.6) that season.
Those Lakers were nursing a bad case of championship hangover after beating the Pacers in 2000 — particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where they were 21st in defensive rating — before cranking up the dial during the league’s second season.
Our arbitrary decision to leave that Lakers’ team out gives the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors the fifth spot on our list. In 2019, the Raptors had a net rating (plus-5.8) o.7 points worse than the Super Team Golden State Warriors (plus-6.5).
While that Raptors team was formidable, they did benefit a great deal from injury luck, as Kevin Durant only played 12 minutes the entire series and Klay Thompson missed Game 3 and the final quarter of Game 6.
No. 4: 2022 Golden State Warriors
After being on the wrong end of this list, the Warriors got their comeuppance a few years later. The 2021-22 Warriors and Boston Celtics experienced polar opposite regular seasons. The Warriors came out the gates red-hot (an 18-2 start) before injuries derailed their march to the top spot in the West (they went 35-27 the rest of the way). On the flip side, the Celtics went from mediocre (16-19) to world beaters (35-12) right around the calendar’s annual turn.
This led to the Celtics boasting a net rating (plus-7.4) 1.9 points better than the Warriors’ (plus-5.5). They looked like the more dominant team through the first half of the series, up 2-1 with the lead midway through the fourth quarter in Game 4. Then, head coach Steve Kerr turned the tide with an audacious decision to briefly bench future Hall of Fame big man Draymond Green late in Game 4 and the rest is history.
No. 3: 2006 Miami Heat
The 2005-06 Miami Heat were a 52-win team in an uninspiring Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks managed to win 60 games in the cutthroat West. As a result, the Mavericks had a net rating (plus-6.7) 2.6 points better than the Heat’s (plus-4.1).
The Heat were catalyzed by their eventual franchise icon, Dwyane Wade. But back then, he was still only just starting his legacy as one of the best slashers the game has ever seen.
Through two games, Wade’s age showed, as he and his Heat were down 2-0. From there, they flipped a switch, won the next four games and pulled off one of the greatest upsets in Finals history.
No. 2: 2011 Dallas Mavericks
Just like the Warriors, the Mavericks eventually got on the right side of the upset train a few years later. The only difference is the Mavericks exacted their revenge on the same franchise which initially pulled a David.
After pairing LeBron James and Chris Bosh with Wade, the 2010-11 Miami Heat were pegged as a juggernaut. Through the regular season, they lived up to the part, going 58-24 and posting a plus-7.8 net rating. The Mavericks were a very good regular season — but not a great one — posting a plus 4.4 net rating.
Their blend of experience and balance (and Dirk Nowitzki’s individual splendor) turned the Mavericks into postseason gangbusters. They went 12-3 en route to the 2011 Finals. Through three games, the Heat looked to have the edge and took a 2-1 lead. But after a gutsy MJ impersonation from Nowitzki in Game 4, momentum flipped to the Mavericks and one of the greatest upsets we’ve ever seen was born.
No. 1: 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland, this is for you! In 2015-16, the Cleveland Cavaliers ran into the greatest regular season team of all-time, the 73-win Warriors. Despite winning 57 games, the Cavaliers’ net rating (plus-6.3) paled in comparison to their historic counterpart’s (plus-10.6).
Through four games, the prophecy seemed to be fulfilling itself and the apparent team of destiny held a commanding 3-1 lead. But that was before LeBron James and Kyrie Irving said “screw destiny” to put together the greatest upset (and comeback) in Finals history.
What About The Indiana Pacers?
The Pacers finished the regular season with a good, not great, plus-2.2 net rating. That is the fifth-lowest net rating of any team to make the Finals since 1996. If they end up winning the series, they would have the lowest net rating of an NBA Champion in that span.
As for the Thunder, their plus-12.8 net rating is the best of any team to make the Finals over this span. In fact, the Thunder own the second-best regular season net rating in NBA history, behind only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
That’s a net rating difference of 10.6. Considering there was only a 4.3-point gap between the 2016 Cavaliers and Warriors, this would make a Pacers victory the greatest upset we’ve seen in nearly three decades. The gap between the Pacers and Thunder is actually the greatest net rating difference between any two Finals teams during this period, regardless of the series outcome.
For those wondering, the team with the higher regular season net rating has emerged victorious in 21 of 28 of the series we looked at in this study. Upsets like these are rare, let alone one as staggering as what Indiana is trying to pull off.
All data for this article was pulled by Fran Huzjan (@FHuzjan on Twitter).
