What The Spurs Are Betting On By Trading For De’Aaron Fox

Just a couple weeks ago, you could feasibly convince yourself De’Aaron Fox would be the biggest name on the open market ahead of the NBA’s trade deadline. Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers quickly changed that this weekend — although, you may say Doncic was never on the open market and instead took a direct flight to the city of Angels.

Nevertheless, just 24 hours after the massive, earth-shattering trade between Los Angeles and the Dallas Mavericks, a smaller, yet mighty, trade occurred. It brought Fox to the San Antonio Spurs and blessed Victor Wembanyama with a legitimate long-term running mate, who is expected to make his Spurs debut against the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night.

What’s notable is the Spurs pulled this off without involving any of their key younger players, including Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan or even Keldon Johnson.

In acquiring Fox, the Spurs have officially accelerated their process from rebuild to win now, bringing about a slew of questions moving forward.

So, what are they betting on with this trade?

Bet No. 1: The Pick-And-Roll Is Unstoppable

This one is easy and obvious. The pick-and-roll should be the bread-and-butter action for Fox and Wembanyama. The former is a premier pick-and-roll ball-handler, averaging nearly 1.08 points per possession in those actions (90th percentile). Fox’s combination of speed and craft makes him deadly around the basket. He incredibly potent in the short midrange, where he’s knocking down 51 percent of his looks and often using a trusty floater.

He can pressure defenses as a scorer in these actions more than any other Spurs guard, which should only help open more opportunities for his French running mate. If you switch, you’re either giving Wembanyama a smaller player to attack or Fox a bigger player to blow past. If you play drop coverage and Wembanyama pops, you’ve giving him the daylight to shoot from the perimeter, where he’s knocking down 36 percent of his looks on nine attempts a night.

While Fox as the ball-handler and Wembanyama as the roller will be potent, the inverse could be equally as devastating and intriguing. The Spurs have played around with the idea of Wembanyama as a pick-and-roll ball-handler throughout his career. Although it’s only been for 75 possessions this year — and boasts a measly 0.62 points per possession — it could be elevated with Fox as the screener, where he uses his speed and springs into action off the ball.

Fox has registered just six possessions as the roll man over the last two seasons, so it’d be a bit of a change in usage. But he’s also never played with a big man like Wembanyama, who can attract attention as a pull-up shooter. For his career, Fox is a better 3-point shooter off the catch (38 percent) than pull-ups (33 percent), so this could be a way for them to deploy his speed off the ball and elevate his impact as a floor-spacer.

Bet No. 2: Push The Pace And Drive

Fox’s calling card is his unbelievable pace. The Spurs aren’t the fastest team with Chris Paul at the helm, given he enjoys a slower and more methodical approach to offense. With Fox around, there’s the possibility of a yin-and-yang dynamic, which would allow the Spurs’ young athletes to play in transition more often.

This season, they’re 13th in pace and 26th in total possessions. They’re 12th in fast-break points. According to Cleaning the Glass, they add 3.4 points per 100 possessions in transition. That’s the fifth-most in the league. Fox will jolt the system and boost those numbers.

Imagine Wembanyama crashing the glass and passing it to a leaking-out Fox, who applies pressure on transition defenses to initiate sets for the Spurs. With Wembanyama and Fox surrounded by athletes like Castle, Sochan, Johnson and Vassell, this team could be deadly in transition.

Fox is also one of the game’s best drivers and will immediately bring about some welcomed change for the Spurs’ offense.

Here’s a fun stat for you:

The Spurs record the 7th fewest drives per game in the NBA right now.

De’Aaron Fox is currently recording the 7th most drives per game of any player.

Like a glove.

— Alex (@AlexHoops_) February 3, 2025

Bet No. 3: The Defensive Leap Is Real

Fox was quietly having an excellent defensive season with the Sacramento Kings. While they were slightly better with him off the floor defensively (0.9 points per 100 possessions), that number doesn’t paint the whole picture.

Fox is 13th in the league in deflections per game, right above Wembanyama. For the second season in a row, he’s averaging nearly two steals per game. He does an excellent job leveraging his speed off of the ball to jump passing lanes and push in transition.

He’s bought in on the ball, too. Defensive stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this number matches the eye test in watching Fox defend at the point of attack this season.

Best Defensive Field Goal Percentage (DFG%) So Far In The 2024 NBA Regular Season (Min. 100 Total DFGA) :

1. De’Aaron Fox — 34.5%
2. Jeremy Sochan — 35.5%
3. Royce O’Neale — 36.2%
4. Cade Cunningham — 36.9%
5. Draymond Green — 38.7%
5. LeBron James… https://t.co/rdc8hZbs9b pic.twitter.com/vssU5Y7x0i

— Stat Defender (@statdefender) November 9, 2024

With Wembanyama serving as a safety blanket, Fox should be further encouraged to dial up the aggression, knowing there’s an elite rim protector and interior defender behind him.

Will It Work?

How well these bets fare hinges on Wembanyama and Fox’s buy-in to make things gel. It’s fair to say Fox’s play will be more closely examined than ever, especially because the expectation is he’ll help turn the Spurs into a winner alongside their superstar big man.

Through his pick-and-roll craft, elite transition play and improved defense, the blueprint is there for him to bring out the best in Wembanyama — one of the world’s most tantalizing players.

Perhaps, in turn, this moment can help catapult Fox to a higher stratosphere of stars. We’ve seen how a fresh context and environment can elevate players. He not only gets that, but also has the runway to develop alongside a young, budding superstar.

It’s a seamless fit, if they want it to be. And that’s not a bad bet to make.