MLB

Sandy Alcántara’s Return: Can the Marlins’ Ace Pick Up Where He Left Off?

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By
Colin Lynch
Author photo
Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Colin Lynch covers the NFL, MLB and WNBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the New England Patriots. His sports coverage has been featured on The Sports Daily and Basketball Insiders, as well as FanSided's Chowder & Champions. A New Hampshire native and former D1 baseball player at St. John's University, Colin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and enjoyed a four-year professional baseball career.

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Published26 Feb 2025

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Sandy Alcántara’s Return: Can the Marlins’ Ace Pick Up Where He Left Off?

For Marlins fans, the countdown to Sandy Alcántara’s return has felt like an eternity.

After missing the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner is finally back on the mound. His return represents more than just a comeback—it’s the restoration of one of baseball’s elite pitchers and a franchise cornerstone.

Alcántara, now 29 years old, has already left his mark on Marlins history, and if he can regain his dominant form, he’ll continue climbing the team’s all-time leaderboards in strikeouts, wins, innings pitched, and more.

But what should expectations be in 2025? And how far can he climb in the franchise record books?

First Steps Back: Alcántara Sharp in Spring Debut

On Sunday, Alcántara took the mound for the first time since surgery, throwing one scoreless inning against the New York Mets in a spring training game. He needed just 17 pitches, topping out at 99 mph, and struck out José Siri for the final out of the first inning.

It was a brief outing, but one that signaled his velocity and command are returning—an encouraging sign for a pitcher who was the most dominant workhorse in baseball just two seasons ago.

The Marlins will be careful with his workload, but if Alcántara can stay healthy, he has a chance to etch his name even deeper into Marlins history.

Where Does Alcántara Rank in Marlins History?

Strikeouts

  • 1. Ricky Nolasco – 1,001
  • 2. Josh Johnson – 832
  • 3. Sandy Alcántara – 779
  • 4. Dontrelle Willis – 757

2025 ZiPS projection: 134 strikeouts

With even a moderate workload, Alcántara is a lock to pass Johnson early in the season. Catching Nolasco (1,001) may take longer, but with back-to-back 200+ strikeout seasons in 2021 and 2022, Alcántara could put himself in a position to take the top spot in 2026.

He also sits just 211 strikeouts away from 1,000 in his career—a milestone he could reach this season.

Wins

  • 1. Ricky Nolasco – 81
  • 2. Dontrelle Willis – 68
  • 3. Josh Johnson – 56
  • 8. Sandy Alcántara – 41

2025 ZiPS projection: 9 wins

Wins are a tricky stat, as they depend heavily on team performance. But if Alcántara reaches his projected 9 wins, he’ll leapfrog Ryan Dempster, Aníbal Sánchez, A.J. Burnett, and Brad Penny.

If he matches his 14-win 2022 campaign, he’d sit just one victory behind Johnson for third all-time.

Innings Pitched

  • 1. Ricky Nolasco – 1,225 2/3
  • 2. Dontrelle Willis – 1,022 2/3
  • 3. Josh Johnson – 916 2/3
  • 4. Sandy Alcántara – 892 1/3

2025 ZiPS projection: 157 1/3 innings

If Alcántara stays healthy, he should easily pass Johnson within his first few starts. By season’s end, he’ll likely move into second all-time, passing Willis.

Catching Nolasco (1,225 2/3) will take more time, but at Alcántara’s career pace, it’s not out of reach.

ERA Leaders (Minimum 750 IP)

  • 1. Josh Johnson – 3.15
  • 2. Sandy Alcántara – 3.31
  • 3. Josh Beckett – 3.46

2025 ZiPS projection: 3.49 ERA

This record is harder to predict, as ERA fluctuates more than raw counting stats. But hypothetically, if Alcántara pitches 175 innings with a 2.31 ERA, he could surpass Johnson.

Considering he posted a 2.28 ERA in 2022, it’s not impossible—though maintaining dominance after surgery will be his biggest challenge.

Complete Games

  • 1. Dontrelle Willis – 15
  • 2. A.J. Burnett – 14
  • 3. Sandy Alcántara – 12

Few pitchers in modern baseball throw complete games anymore, but Alcántara is an exception. He led MLB with nine complete games from 2022-23, including six in his Cy Young season.

If given a full workload, he could pass Burnett and Willis this year, cementing his place as one of the last great workhorses in the game.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Alcántara?

Returning from Tommy John surgery is never easy, and the Marlins will likely limit Alcántara’s innings in 2025. But if he stays healthy, he remains one of the most dominant and durable pitchers in baseball.

His historic trajectory within the Marlins organization is clear:

  • He’ll move into second place in innings pitched.
  • He’ll pass Josh Johnson for second in strikeouts and close in on Nolasco’s franchise record.
  • He’ll climb the all-time wins leaderboard, potentially reaching top three.
  • And if his ERA remains sharp, he could challenge Josh Johnson for the lowest in franchise history.

The road back won’t be easy, but Sandy Alcántara has already proven he can defy expectations.

And if his 99 mph fastball in his spring debut is any indication, the Marlins’ ace is ready to remind the baseball world exactly who he is.