An Eagles All-Pro is publicly betting on Saquon Barkley reclaiming his 2024 form in 2026, and the locker-room confidence is notable given how his 2025 season actually played out.
Barkley followed a historic 2,005-yard campaign with a solid but far less explosive follow-up.
That gap between expectation and production is exactly why this prediction matters heading into next season.
Barkley’s 2025 Numbers Tell a Complicated Story
Barkley carried the ball 280 times for 1,140 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025, a 4.1 yards-per-carry average that trailed his 2024 mark by a wide margin.
He added 37 catches for 273 yards and two scores, keeping his touch count high even as efficiency slipped. Volume never disappeared. Explosiveness did.
The 2024 comparison is stark.
Barkley posted 345 carries for 2,005 yards at 5.8 yards per clip, with 13 rushing touchdowns and a workload that made him the engine of Philadelphia’s offense.
Losing nearly two full yards per carry from one season to the next is the kind of dip that fuels both concern and, apparently, bold optimism from his own teammates.
Why Lane Johnson’s Prediction Isn’t Crazy
Eagles tackle Lane Johnson made the case directly this week, telling reporters at the team’s joint practice with the Patriots that a return to 2024 form is coming.
“We will see the Saquon of 2 years ago,” Johnson said, according to The Athletic’s Zach Berman.
“The more productive we are in the run game and stuff feeds off that, we’ll see the big plays, we’ll see him flex wide at wide receiver, we’ll see him in the screen game.”
Barkley enters 2026 with $16.75 million guaranteed and a cap hit just under $9.9 million, a contract structure that all but guarantees another featured workload.
Fantasy projections already cluster around 300 total touches for him next season, with rushing totals in the 1,300 to 1,600-yard range and 35 to 40 receptions attached.
That range still puts him firmly in the top-15 running back conversation, and arguably higher if the offensive line issues that dragged down his 2025 efficiency get fixed.
Johnson’s belief carries weight precisely because it comes from someone blocking for Barkley every Sunday.
That’s not outside noise. That’s someone with a direct view of whether the 2025 dip was talent erosion or correctable circumstance.
The Case for Skepticism
Barkley has now logged 1,826 career carries across 106 regular-season games, and workhorse backs with that kind of mileage don’t typically get more explosive with age.
The 4.6 career yards-per-carry average sits comfortably above league average, but the trend line from 2024 to 2025 points down, not up.
Local reporting has already floated 2026 as a potential make-or-break year for his long-term future in Philadelphia, which adds real stakes to whether this prediction ages well.
Fantasy analysts have generally kept Barkley in the RB1 tier but with a risk-reward label attached rather than a locked-in elite ranking.
That hedge reflects the same tension driving this whole story: a proven ceiling against a declining floor.
Anyone building a 2026 fantasy football draft guide needs to weigh both realities before locking in a first-round pick.
What Determines the Outcome
Training camp usage and offensive line health will be the first real signals of whether Barkley trends back toward his 2024 ceiling.
If Philadelphia’s blocking improves, the efficiency gap likely closes fast given his touch volume is never in question.
That’s the swing factor separating a bounce-back MVP-caliber season from another solid-but-underwhelming encore.
For fantasy managers weighing workhorse backs against injury-prone alternatives, Barkley’s situation pairs well with David Montgomery’s 2026 fantasy outlook as a workload comparison.
The NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds market will also move quickly if Barkley opens camp looking like his 2024 self again.
For the latest on Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, keep it locked to Sportscasting.
